Warming arctic at 30mb
Some recent SSWs – 2009. and 2001. AO is drifting down. It should accelerate. the GEFS sees the normal -AO temperature anomalies across the hemisphere. The 16 day GFS shows…
The Euro is Flat Out Strange
So we go from this on the 00z turn from Wednesday evening that the entire weekly package was based on For 00z Friday Feb 16 to this at 12z yesterday…
UPDATE: The new European is warm. I don’t believe it!!!
This looks like the ANTILOG to what we look for to get warmth over the eastern U.S. The model run is very warm and bearish, once past the front 10…
Euro Temp Update
It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite. I would…
2018 Hurricane Prediction – Strongest Cycle in 70 Years
GWO was cited by media as the only organization correctly predicting last year’s Atlantic hurricane season and destructive landfalls OCALA, FLA. (PRWEB) JANUARY 18, 2018 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) was…
Next week Fits Pattern Recognition ideas – Snow to the Gulf Coast!!!
I like the storm next week, The models have a problem that most likely will affect the US model more in that the real storm will be the second piece…
Frigid late December to early January impacts linger
Many who normally ‘call for’ oil delivery are still struggling to keep the furnaces going. Oil and propane companies were not prepared for the cold. NOAA had forecast a better…
Could the brutal cold period also see a blizzard?
It is another frigid morning int the Great Lakes and Northeast states. As we showed in the region update, Lake Effect has really kicked in with a record snow blitz…
Crucial Linkage to 95-96 in SST,MJO
When was the last time in December people were fired up about the rest of the winter? We continue to see links to 95-96. The SST has cooled in the…
Ice and snow to come with the cold – models struggle with details
The cold is coming, See the paint bomb on the 15 day ensemble EPS. That usually means trouble around the edges. In today’s regional update we looked at the last…
Euro Weekly Comment ( temperatures)
December 18, 2017 The Euro’s first three weeks are very cold. The week ending December 29: The week ending January 5: The week ending January 12: Then the flip occurs…
Euro Weekly Comment ( 500)
December 18, 2017 Euro forecasting a huge flip after Week 3. It’s warmer, but inherent model problems limit me taking a stand. The model is notoriously too warm in the…
Snow or Ice to the Gulf Coast During Christmas week?
The idea of snow or ice to the gulf coast during Christmas week is certainly something modeling is seeing, In fact, a whole battle zone from Texas to the mid-Atlantic…
A note on seasonal forecasting and this winter
Seasonal forecasting is still on the cutting edge of the science of meteorology. People hear about the latest seasonal forecast model runs and El Niño/La Niña, but what actually forms…
Record warm Christmas?
While the cold air developing in the arctic is impressive, it may have some side effects. Depending on where the cold air plunges, there will be two compensating ridges (that’s…
Model Craziness
This morning I went over the abrupt change in the models from yesterday to today in relation to an Omega Block off the West Coast. Look at the hemispheric Euro…
DAY 11 ANALOGS FROM CPC
One of the analogs is the 1967 example! The surface temps 500 mb 10 days later temps 500 mb 20 days Can you see what goes on here? The extreme…
Using the Light of What you Know to Journey to Where You Dont know
Here is how I am looking at this around North America ( What I believe I know) 1 There is tremendous cold air around Canada in the coming weeks. The…
Storms may increase white Christmas odds, threaten holiday travel in midwestern, northeastern US
A stormy pattern in the days leading up to Christmas may increase odds for a white Christmas in the midwestern and northeastern United States but may also pose concerns for…
Snowstorms in the South: An Historical Perspective
Snowstorms in the Southeast and Deep South of the United States: An Historical Perspective Atlanta, Georgia was amazed recently when 4-6” of snow (and ice) accumulated this past Sunday and…
