• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

This morning I went over the abrupt change in the models from yesterday to today in relation to an Omega Block off the West Coast. Look at the hemispheric Euro from 00z at 500 mb:

The new 12z run:

The axis of the ridge shifted slightly to the southeast, and this caused the deep closed low of California to be an open trough much farther to the east.

On the other side of North America, an extremely positive NAO has turned into a neutral to slightly positive look. On the 00z run, Joe D. and I were joking that an air parcel would take less than a day to go the 3500 miles from New York to London with that roaring jet. The gradient on the 12z run is much less. This causes the Southeast ridge to be suppressed more to the southeast, consistent with the La Niña/-QBO/low solar activity couplet.

Here’s the 12z GFS:

That is an odd look, but it has brutal cold across Central and eastern Canada. There is a closed low over Baja and an evolving Omega Block over the Gulf of Alaska. Later on in the run, the model retrogrades the block and connects the three areas of low heights while maintaining the Southeast ridge.

The GEFS has a “Polar Vortex” look but the Southeast ridge fighting it:

If that’s the case (remember this is an average of many solutions) there’s going to be some big storms.

Again, expect the model roller coaster to continue. We are a long ways from having model certainty.

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