- It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite.
- I would be remiss to simply ignore this, I did not expect it.
- I still don’t believe this, but it’s simply too much to ignore or throw out.
- There was no MJO update on the Euro site tonight.
The JMA ending February 10:
The European:
.png)
It’s hard to believe how warm this is after that. The JMA in the week ending February 17:
The week ending February 19 on the Euro (I like the JMA better):
.png)
The week ending February 26:
.png)
The week ending March 5:
.png)
JMA in the similar two weeks:
The week ending March 12:
.png)
The week ending March 19:
.png)
46 days (almost opposite of Monday’s run):
.png)
Snowfall:
.png)
The Verdict
In the end, I don’t trust the run. With such strong objective guidance the opposite of Monday (which encouraged me to do what I did with the February forecast) this is not where I thought this was going to go.
