• Wed. May 22nd, 2024
  • It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite.
  • I would be remiss to simply ignore this, I did not expect it.
    • I still don’t believe this, but it’s simply too much to ignore or throw out.
  • There was no MJO update on the Euro site tonight.

The JMA ending February 10:

The European:

It’s hard to believe how warm this is after that. The JMA in the week ending February 17:

The week ending February 19 on the Euro (I like the JMA better):

The week ending February 26:

The week ending March 5:

JMA in the similar two weeks:

The week ending March 12:

The week ending March 19:

46 days (almost opposite of Monday’s run):


The Verdict

In the end, I don’t trust the run. With such strong objective guidance the opposite of Monday (which encouraged me to do what I did with the February forecast) this is not where I thought this was going to go.

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