• Thu. Apr 18th, 2024

First Alert Hurricane Tracker

Gulf Coast #1 Hurricane Source

December 18, 2017

The Euro’s first three weeks are very cold.

The week ending December 29:

The week ending January 5:

The week ending January 12:

Then the flip occurs on the model. The week ending January 19:

The week ending January 26:

The week ending February 2:

The 46 day total is cold, because of how cold it is up front.

On the other hand, the CFSv2 runs continue to be cold:

In 10 day increments, the period ending January 2:

The 10 days ending January 12:

The 10 days ending January 22:

The 10 days ending February 1:

The Verdict

There is no question in my mind that the back three weeks will be warmer than what is coming in the shorter term, but there is a question as to how mild it will be. The CFSv2 is showing that questions still abound about that. In the meantime, through January 10, the pattern will go a long way in showing that our ideas from fall had merit. Unfortunately those analogs go different ways once to mid winter.

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