• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

Using the Light of What you Know to Journey to Where You Dont know

Here is how I am looking at this around North America ( What I believe I know)

1 There is tremendous cold air around Canada in the coming weeks. The reversal is displayed across the board. and will make the biggest difference in the plains where its been warm. A brutal 2-3 week is shaping up, The cold will make a dagger south, and dam west-east across the north. I do expect the dam to burst because the MJO is STILL STRONGLY FORECASTED INTO 8 ON THE EURO

That is a cold 2 METER TEMP profile fore where we live,

The EPO is strongly negative

Before the season we knew the feedback of the warm Atlantic ocean was a gimme and the trough would try to pull back. In fact the colder it gets in Canada the more it will feedback. Why? Because the seasonal enhancement of the jet from December to January would ask for the change, and if its even a tighter gradient, it means sinking south of the jet enhances the ridge! So the models are seeing that, but maybe going way overbroad. How so? Well, factor 3 is that in the Atlantic but its influenced by factor 2, the amount of trough over the west. That is feedback situation, In other words, the weaker the trough, the more there is more trough to the east and the more the cold wins. The configuration of 4/5/6 argues for troughs trying to go into the southwest to come kicking out. Why? Cold water near Hawaii promotes the negative EPO, warm water to the east promotes more ridging near the southwest US. Cold water in enso 1.2 is a colder eastern signal. But what happens if the modeling is out of kilter with one? The whole thing goes wild.

So that is what you are seeing, My take is the western trough is like someone heaving a 70-yard bomb downfield. We know the pass is coming but will it be caught? If you throw enough of them one of them may be caught. But take the 12z GFS vs 06z Less southwest trough by day 9 and not connected to the trough to the north So we go from this, which by the way pushed the cold front into the southeast anyway and had plenty coming across the north

to this

All this is assuming that whatever comes down the west coast amplifies. Which is another problem It needs cold air to get stronger, The model is assuming the cold feedback. But if we look at the negative EPO and the MJO the cold, while spreading back a bit is really centered plains east

Here is the fact. What has happened is its turn cold east of the Mississippi We all love to live in the future, but none of that has happened yet. I am fascinated with this more to test my skill. But you know what is a shame, Many are so worried about Christmas week ( I have not changed, large-scale cold centered over the nation’s midsection but trying tp push east with a war zone from the southern Plains to the mid and north Atlantic states and the cold will win out even in the southeast IMO as this reminds me a lot of the 1970 Christmas week along with 1967) that we don’t stop and think about what has just happened. For the first time since 2013 over the major northeast cities it has snowed twice and not just flakes in the air, The first case was argued out to sea 4 days before, the second case, though only 1-3 inches PHL to BOS, also over performed against modeling 2 days out The plains are going to get theres, and I have my eye on Texas for some real nasty stuff, But take that all away, and you are left with something that is as challenging as any game you want to play

Is the GFS right? Which run. That is my point, A lot of factors here Away from the US I am looking at the MJO and EPO, but near the US the other factors imply feedback and if one thing is handled wrong by the modeling ( or me) the results change in the prime battle areas which are from the southern plains to the east coast for the holiday week

The way I look at it, is until I see the factors I have used to get me here change ( again I do you why this will pull back with time) I stick with what got me here. Besides for all the ridging for example on the JMA, week 2,3,and 4 are not exactly chopped liver cold and in reality for the nation a whole, colder than what the last week, for instance, has brought

Its almost a spiritual lesson you know. The trials we face tomorrow ( eastern ridges, busted forecast) are only because of the blessings that brought us to where we are today.

Peace out

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