• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

    ATLANTIC

     

    2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:


    5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:



    Latest Tropical Weather Outlook:


    Latest Tropical Weather Discussion:


    Western Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


    Gulf Of Mexico Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


    US East Coast Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of NOAA NESDIS


     


    Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


    Gulf Of Mexico Visible Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


     


    Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Tropical Atlantic Wide Water Vapor Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


    Gulf Of Mexico Water Vapor Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage

     


     


    Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of NOAA NESDIS


    Eastern Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Eastern Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage


    Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage


    Eastern Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Image:

    Courtesy of College of Dupage


     


    Bahamas Radar Links:

    Bahamas Radar Imagery

    Bermuda Radar Links:

    Radar Loop From Bermuda Weather Service
    Static Radar Images From Bermuda
    Bermuda Radar & AWOS

    Jamaica/Hispaniola Radar Links:

    Jamaican Radar Imagery
    Cuba & Jamaica Radar Mosiac
    Eastern Cuba/Haiti Radar Imagery
    Cuba Radar Sites

    Lesser Antilles & Barbados Radar Links:

    Antilles Radar Imagery
    Barbados Radar Imagery
    St. Maarten Radar Loop
    ABC Islands Radar Imagery

    Mexico & Central America Radar Links:

    Mexican Radar Imagery
    Belize Radar Imagery
    Panama Radar Imagery


    Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Current Tropical Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis:

     


    Courtesy of coolwx.com

    Current Southwest North Atlantic Surface Analysis:


    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

    Current Caribbean Surface Analysis:


    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


    Courtesy of coolwx.com

    Current Gulf of Mexico Surface Analysis:


    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


    Courtesy of coolwx.com


    Courtesy of coolwx.com

    Current Southeast US Surface Map:

    Current Northern/Western Gulf Coast Surface Map:

    Current Hemispheric 500 Millibar & Surface Analysis:


    Current Atlantic Sea State Analysis:

    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


    24 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

    24 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

    36 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

    48 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

    48 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

    72 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

    Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

    72 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

    Day 3 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

    Day 4 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

    Day 5 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

    Day 6 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

    Day 7 Forecast Surface Weather Map:


     


     


     


    Current Atlantic 700-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 1000-1010 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 500-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 990-999 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 400-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 970-989 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 300-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 950-969 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 250-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 940-949 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 200-700 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range <940 mbs):

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


     

    Current Atlantic 850 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 700 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic 500 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Current Atlantic Low-Level Convergence Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

    Current Atlantic Upper-Level Divergence Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Probability Of Tropical Cyclone Formation Within 24 Hours:

    Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division

    Probability Of Tropical Cyclone Formation In 24 To 48 Hours:

    Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division


    Vertical Wind Shear Forecast (850-200 mbs) For The Next 24 Hours:

    Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division

    Vertical Wind Shear Forecast (850-200 mbs) For 24 To 48 Hours:

    Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division


    Current Atlantic Wind Shear Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Current Atlantic Wind Shear Tendency Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    Current Eastern Atlantic/African Wind Shear Analysis:

    Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


    12 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    24 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    36 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    60 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    72 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    96 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

    120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

    Courtesy of PSU E-Wall


    Current Sea Surface Temperature Analysis:


    Courtesy of NOAA


    Tropical Weather Overview:

    What Is A Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm Or A Hurricane:

    Tropical Depression
    A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed is 38 mph or less (33 kt or less or 17 m/s or less). Depressions have a closed circulation.

    Tropical Storm
    A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed ranges from 39 mph (34 kt or 18 m/s) to 73 mph (63 kt or 33 m/s). The convection in tropical storms is usually more concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into distinct bands.

    Hurricane
    When winds in a tropical cyclone equal or exceed 74 mph (64 kt or 34 m/s) it is called a hurricane. Hurricanes are further designated by categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes in categories 3, 4, 5 are known as Major Hurricanes or Intense Hurricanes.

    The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

    The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity at the indicated time. The scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 10 m [33 ft]) is the determining factor in the scale. The scale does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. These wind-caused impacts are to apply to the worst winds reaching the coast and the damage would be less elsewhere. It should also be noted that the general wind-caused damage descriptions are to some degree dependent upon the local building codes in effect and how well and how long they have been enforced. Hurricane wind damage is also dependent upon such other factors as duration of high winds, change of wind direction, amount of accompanying rainfall, and age of structures.

    Category One Hurricane: Sustained Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr).
    Very dangerous winds will produce some damage
    People, livestock, and pets struck by flying or falling debris could be injured or killed. Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes could be destroyed, especially if they are not anchored properly as they tend to shift or roll off their foundations. Newer mobile homes that are anchored properly can sustain damage involving the removal of shingle or metal roof coverings, and loss of vinyl siding, as well as damage to carports, sunrooms, or lanais. Some poorly constructed frame homes can experience major damage, involving loss of the roof covering and damage to gable ends as well as the removal of porch coverings and awnings. Unprotected windows may break if struck by flying debris. Masonry chimneys can be toppled. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof shingles, vinyl siding, soffit panels, and gutters. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures can occur. Some apartment building and shopping center roof coverings could be partially removed. Industrial buildings can lose roofing and siding especially from windward corners, rakes, and eaves. Failures to overhead doors and unprotected windows will be common. Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. There will be occasional damage to commercial signage, fences, and canopies. Large branches of trees will snap and shallow rooted trees can be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Dolly (2008) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 1 winds and impacts to South Padre Island, Texas.

    Category Two Hurricane: Sustained Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr).
    Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage
    There is a substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes have a very high chance of being destroyed and the flying debris generated can shred nearby mobile homes. Newer mobile homes can also be destroyed. Poorly constructed frame homes have a high chance of having their roof structures removed especially if they are not anchored properly. Unprotected windows will have a high probability of being broken by flying debris. Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures will be common. There will be a substantial percentage of roof and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Unreinforced masonry walls can collapse. Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. Commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be damaged and often destroyed. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Potable water could become scarce as filtration systems begin to fail. Hurricane Frances (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 2 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Port St. Lucie, Florida with Category 1 conditions experienced elsewhere in the city.

    Category Three Hurricane: Sustained Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr).
    Devastating damage will occur
    There is a high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Most commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Hurricane Ivan (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 3 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Gulf Shores, Alabama with Category 2 conditions experienced elsewhere in this city.

    Category Four Hurricane: Sustained Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr).
    Catastrophic damage will occur.
    There is a very high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. A high percentage of newer mobile homes also will be destroyed. Poorly constructed homes can sustain complete collapse of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. Well-built homes also can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Extensive damage to roof coverings, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and penetrate some protected windows. There will be a high percentage of structural damage to the top floors of apartment buildings. Steel frames in older industrial buildings can collapse. There will be a high percentage of collapse to older unreinforced masonry buildings. Most windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Charley (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 4 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Punta Gorda, Florida with Category 3 conditions experienced elsewhere in the city.

    Category Five Hurricane: Sustained Winds of 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher).
    Catastrophic damage will occur.
    People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.


    2017 Tropical Cyclone Tracks:


    Courtesy of Unisys


    2018 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names:

    AlbertoBerylChrisDebbyErnesto
    FlorenceGordonHeleneIsaacJoyce
    KirkLeslieMichaelNadineOscar
    PattyRafaelSaraTonyValerie
    William

    Tropical Weather Numerical Model Links:

    Allan Huffman’s Weather Models PageCanadian Model
    Cyclone Phase Evolution ForecastsECMWF Model
    FNMOC WebsiteGFS Ensemble Model Tracks
    NCEP/EMC Cyclone Tracks PageOperational Model Guidance
    PSU Electronic Wall SiteRoundy Tropical Cyclone Probability Chart
    South Florida Water Management Hurricane Model PageTropical Atlantic Model Plots
    Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential FieldsTropical Cyclone Intensity & Track Model Forecasts
    Tropical Cyclone Model Output MapsTropical Group TC Model Generator Page
    TXTornado.net Model Page
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