ATLANTIC

 

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:


5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook:



Latest Tropical Weather Outlook:


Latest Tropical Weather Discussion:


Western Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Tropical Atlantic Wide Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


Gulf Of Mexico Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


US East Coast Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of NOAA NESDIS


 


Tropical Atlantic Wide Visible Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


Gulf Of Mexico Visible Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


 


Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Image:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Tropical Atlantic Wide Water Vapor Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


Gulf Of Mexico Water Vapor Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage

 


 


Caribbean Water Vapor Satellite Image:

Courtesy of NOAA NESDIS


Eastern Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Eastern Atlantic Infrared Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage


Eastern Atlantic Visible Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage


Eastern Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Image:

Courtesy of College of Dupage


 


Bahamas Radar Links:

Bahamas Radar Imagery

Bermuda Radar Links:

Radar Loop From Bermuda Weather Service
Static Radar Images From Bermuda
Bermuda Radar & AWOS

Jamaica/Hispaniola Radar Links:

Jamaican Radar Imagery
Cuba & Jamaica Radar Mosiac
Eastern Cuba/Haiti Radar Imagery
Cuba Radar Sites

Lesser Antilles & Barbados Radar Links:

Antilles Radar Imagery
Barbados Radar Imagery
St. Maarten Radar Loop
ABC Islands Radar Imagery

Mexico & Central America Radar Links:

Mexican Radar Imagery
Belize Radar Imagery
Panama Radar Imagery


Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Current Tropical Atlantic Surface Weather Analysis:

 


Courtesy of coolwx.com

Current Southwest North Atlantic Surface Analysis:


Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

Current Caribbean Surface Analysis:


Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


Courtesy of coolwx.com

Current Gulf of Mexico Surface Analysis:


Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


Courtesy of coolwx.com


Courtesy of coolwx.com

Current Southeast US Surface Map:

Current Northern/Western Gulf Coast Surface Map:

Current Hemispheric 500 Millibar & Surface Analysis:


Current Atlantic Sea State Analysis:

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center


24 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

24 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

36 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

48 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

48 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

72 Hour NHC Surface Forecast:

Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center

72 Hour NHC Wind & Wave Forecast:

Day 3 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

Day 4 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

Day 5 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

Day 6 Forecast Surface Weather Map:

Day 7 Forecast Surface Weather Map:


 


 


 


Current Atlantic 700-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 1000-1010 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 500-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 990-999 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 400-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 970-989 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 300-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 950-969 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 250-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 940-949 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 200-700 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range <940 mbs):

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


 

Current Atlantic 850 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 700 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic 500 mb Relative Vorticity Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Current Atlantic Low-Level Convergence Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group

Current Atlantic Upper-Level Divergence Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Probability Of Tropical Cyclone Formation Within 24 Hours:

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division

Probability Of Tropical Cyclone Formation In 24 To 48 Hours:

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division


Vertical Wind Shear Forecast (850-200 mbs) For The Next 24 Hours:

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division

Vertical Wind Shear Forecast (850-200 mbs) For 24 To 48 Hours:

Courtesy of NOAA Satellite Services Division


Current Atlantic Wind Shear Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group
Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Current Atlantic Wind Shear Tendency Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


Current Eastern Atlantic/African Wind Shear Analysis:

Courtesy of UW-Madison CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Research Group


12 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

24 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

36 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

48 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

60 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

72 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

96 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall

120 Hour Forecast – Favorable Environmental Conditions For Tropical Development

Courtesy of PSU E-Wall


Current Sea Surface Temperature Analysis:


Courtesy of NOAA


Tropical Weather Overview:

What Is A Tropical Depression, Tropical Storm Or A Hurricane:

Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed is 38 mph or less (33 kt or less or 17 m/s or less). Depressions have a closed circulation.

Tropical Storm
A tropical cyclone in which the maximum sustained wind speed ranges from 39 mph (34 kt or 18 m/s) to 73 mph (63 kt or 33 m/s). The convection in tropical storms is usually more concentrated near the center with outer rainfall organizing into distinct bands.

Hurricane
When winds in a tropical cyclone equal or exceed 74 mph (64 kt or 34 m/s) it is called a hurricane. Hurricanes are further designated by categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricanes in categories 3, 4, 5 are known as Major Hurricanes or Intense Hurricanes.

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 categorization based on the hurricane’s intensity at the indicated time. The scale provides examples of the type of damages and impacts in the United States associated with winds of the indicated intensity. In general, damages rise by about a factor of four for every category increase. The maximum sustained surface wind speed (peak 1-minute wind at 10 m [33 ft]) is the determining factor in the scale. The scale does not address the potential for such other hurricane-related impacts, as storm surge, rainfall-induced floods, and tornadoes. These wind-caused impacts are to apply to the worst winds reaching the coast and the damage would be less elsewhere. It should also be noted that the general wind-caused damage descriptions are to some degree dependent upon the local building codes in effect and how well and how long they have been enforced. Hurricane wind damage is also dependent upon such other factors as duration of high winds, change of wind direction, amount of accompanying rainfall, and age of structures.

Category One Hurricane: Sustained Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr).
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage
People, livestock, and pets struck by flying or falling debris could be injured or killed. Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes could be destroyed, especially if they are not anchored properly as they tend to shift or roll off their foundations. Newer mobile homes that are anchored properly can sustain damage involving the removal of shingle or metal roof coverings, and loss of vinyl siding, as well as damage to carports, sunrooms, or lanais. Some poorly constructed frame homes can experience major damage, involving loss of the roof covering and damage to gable ends as well as the removal of porch coverings and awnings. Unprotected windows may break if struck by flying debris. Masonry chimneys can be toppled. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof shingles, vinyl siding, soffit panels, and gutters. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures can occur. Some apartment building and shopping center roof coverings could be partially removed. Industrial buildings can lose roofing and siding especially from windward corners, rakes, and eaves. Failures to overhead doors and unprotected windows will be common. Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. There will be occasional damage to commercial signage, fences, and canopies. Large branches of trees will snap and shallow rooted trees can be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages that could last a few to several days. Hurricane Dolly (2008) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 1 winds and impacts to South Padre Island, Texas.

Category Two Hurricane: Sustained Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr).
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage
There is a substantial risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes have a very high chance of being destroyed and the flying debris generated can shred nearby mobile homes. Newer mobile homes can also be destroyed. Poorly constructed frame homes have a high chance of having their roof structures removed especially if they are not anchored properly. Unprotected windows will have a high probability of being broken by flying debris. Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures will be common. There will be a substantial percentage of roof and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Unreinforced masonry walls can collapse. Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. Commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be damaged and often destroyed. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks. Potable water could become scarce as filtration systems begin to fail. Hurricane Frances (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 2 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Port St. Lucie, Florida with Category 1 conditions experienced elsewhere in the city.

Category Three Hurricane: Sustained Winds 111-129 mph (96-112 kt or 178-208 km/hr).
Devastating damage will occur
There is a high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. Most newer mobile homes will sustain severe damage with potential for complete roof failure and wall collapse. Poorly constructed frame homes can be destroyed by the removal of the roof and exterior walls. Unprotected windows will be broken by flying debris. Well-built frame homes can experience major damage involving the removal of roof decking and gable ends. There will be a high percentage of roof covering and siding damage to apartment buildings and industrial buildings. Isolated structural damage to wood or steel framing can occur. Complete failure of older metal buildings is possible, and older unreinforced masonry buildings can collapse. Numerous windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Most commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to a few weeks after the storm passes. Hurricane Ivan (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 3 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Gulf Shores, Alabama with Category 2 conditions experienced elsewhere in this city.

Category Four Hurricane: Sustained Winds 130-156 mph (113-136 kt or 209-251 km/hr).
Catastrophic damage will occur.
There is a very high risk of injury or death to people, livestock, and pets due to flying and falling debris. Nearly all older (pre-1994) mobile homes will be destroyed. A high percentage of newer mobile homes also will be destroyed. Poorly constructed homes can sustain complete collapse of all walls as well as the loss of the roof structure. Well-built homes also can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Extensive damage to roof coverings, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will break most unprotected windows and penetrate some protected windows. There will be a high percentage of structural damage to the top floors of apartment buildings. Steel frames in older industrial buildings can collapse. There will be a high percentage of collapse to older unreinforced masonry buildings. Most windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Charley (2004) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 4 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Punta Gorda, Florida with Category 3 conditions experienced elsewhere in the city.

Category Five Hurricane: Sustained Winds of 157 mph or higher (137 kt or higher or 252 km/hr or higher).
Catastrophic damage will occur.
People, livestock, and pets are at very high risk of injury or death from flying or falling debris, even if indoors in mobile homes or framed homes. Almost complete destruction of all mobile homes will occur, regardless of age or construction. A high percentage of frame homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Extensive damage to roof covers, windows, and doors will occur. Large amounts of windborne debris will be lofted into the air. Windborne debris damage will occur to nearly all unprotected windows and many protected windows. Significant damage to wood roof commercial buildings will occur due to loss of roof sheathing. Complete collapse of many older metal buildings can occur. Most unreinforced masonry walls will fail which can lead to the collapse of the buildings. A high percentage of industrial buildings and low-rise apartment buildings will be destroyed. Nearly all windows will be blown out of high-rise buildings resulting in falling glass, which will pose a threat for days to weeks after the storm. Nearly all commercial signage, fences, and canopies will be destroyed. Nearly all trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Long-term water shortages will increase human suffering. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Hurricane Andrew (1992) is an example of a hurricane that brought Category 5 winds and impacts to coastal portions of Cutler Ridge, Florida with Category 4 conditions experienced elsewhere in south Miami-Dade County.


2017 Tropical Cyclone Tracks:


Courtesy of Unisys


2018 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Names:

Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto
Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce
Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar
Patty Rafael Sara Tony Valerie
William

Tropical Weather Numerical Model Links:

Allan Huffman’s Weather Models Page Canadian Model
Cyclone Phase Evolution Forecasts ECMWF Model
FNMOC Website GFS Ensemble Model Tracks
NCEP/EMC Cyclone Tracks Page Operational Model Guidance
PSU Electronic Wall Site Roundy Tropical Cyclone Probability Chart
South Florida Water Management Hurricane Model Page Tropical Atlantic Model Plots
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track Model Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Model Output Maps Tropical Group TC Model Generator Page
TXTornado.net Model Page