• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which
will run until November 30.  Long-term averages for the number of
named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7, and 3,
respectively.

The list of names for 2021 is as follows:

Name           Pronunciation    Name            Pronunciation
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ana            AH-nah           Larry           LAIR-ree
Bill           bill             Mindy           MIN-dee
Claudette      klaw-DET         Nicholas        NIH-kuh-luss 
Danny          DAN-ee           Odette          oh-DEHT
Elsa           EL-suh           Peter           PEE-tur 
Fred           frehd            Rose            rohz  
Grace          grayss           Sam             sam   
Henri          anh-REE          Teresa          tuh-REE-suh
Ida            EYE-duh          Victor          VIK-tur
Julian         JOO-lee-uhn      Wanda           WAHN-duh
Kate           kayt  

One tropical storm, Ana, already formed this year in May. The 
next named storm that develops this season will be Bill. 


Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jun 1 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W, from 17N southward, moving
westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 00N to 08N between 15W and 20W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, from 14N southward, 
moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Convection is inland over 
Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N20W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 13W,
from 01N to 06N between 20W and 30W, and from 05N to 09N between
30W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
locally fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range west of the Yucatan peninsula, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure will prevail across the forecast waters this week. 
Fresh northeast to east winds will pulse each night off the NW 
Yucatan Peninsula in association with a diurnal trough. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds are expected elsewhere through the end of 
the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure prevails north of the area over the SW N Atlc. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and climatological low 
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over 
the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the
NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 1-3 ft over
the NW Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean will 
prevail today before diminishing. High pressure will prevail 
across the western Atlc through the week. This will support 
moderate to fresh tradewinds across much of the basin through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the
trough. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3-4 ft are found west of
the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the
discussion waters, anchored by 1031 mb high pressure near 36N52W.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas
are in the 3-5 ft range west of 68W. East of 68W, seas are in the
4-7 ft range, except reaching 8 ft S of 12N and W of 40W in
decaying NE swell. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the surface trough will dissipate 
today. High pressure will gradually build westward into the region
through Wed and then prevail through the remainder of the week. 
This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across much of 
the forecast waters Wed through Sat.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jun 1 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Blanca, located about 300 miles south-southeast of Socorro 
Island, Mexico. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.




cone graphic

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Blanca Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 01 2021

...BLANCA COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 109.6W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSE OF SOCORRO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Blanca was 
located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Blanca is 
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower 
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of 
days, followed by a slow westward motion.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is possible today, followed by gradual 
weakening beginning tonight and continuing through late this 
week.

Blanca is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

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