• Wed. May 22nd, 2024
    NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES ABI BAND 13 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M6C13_G16_s20192582156145_e20192582158529_c20192582159057.nc

    cone graphic

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
    
    ...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
    ...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
    STATES COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.3N 78.0W
    ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
    ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
    Humberto.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
    located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars near
    latitude 29.3 North, longitude 78.0 West. Humberto is moving toward
    the north near 6 mph (9 km/h),  and this motion is expected to
    continue through tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is forecast
    to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion toward
    the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
    forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away
    from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the southeastern coast
    of the United States through Wednesday.
    
    Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
    maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next
    few days, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane later
    tonight.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
    from the center.
    
    The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is estimated
    to be 989 mb (29.21 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL:  Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
    to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
    northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.
    Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
    Wednesday.
    
    SURF:  Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
    Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
    east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
    These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
    conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
    office.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.
    
    [Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
    TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13         
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092019               
    2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019                                            
    
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR     
    LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              
    
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
    
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
    
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
    
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
    
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
    
    
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
    
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
    
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
    
    HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
    
    CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
    
    ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
    
    BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
    
    SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
    
    SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)
    SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
    SABLE ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
    
    CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
    
    CHERRY PT NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    
    NEW RIVER NC   34  1   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
    
    MOREHEAD CITY  34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)
    
    SURF CITY NC   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
    
    WILMINGTON NC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
    
    BALD HEAD ISL  34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
    
    LITTLE RIVER   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    
    MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
    
    GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    
    CHARLESTON SC  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
    
    BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
    
    SAVANNAH GA    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
    
    KINGS BAY GA   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
    
    MAYPORT NS FL  34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
    
    JACKSONVILLE   34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
    
    DAYTONA BEACH  34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
    
    ORLANDO FL     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
    
    COCOA BEACH FL 34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
    
    PATRICK AFB    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
    
    FT PIERCE FL   34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
    
    W PALM BEACH   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
    
    FT LAUDERDALE  34  2   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
    
    BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)  57(79)   1(80)
    BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  44(47)   1(48)
    BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   X(25)
    
    GRAND BAHAMA   34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
    
    NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
    
    time of arrival graphic
    
    
    Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092019
    500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019
    
    Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite
    imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler
    weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye.
    An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
    this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern
    quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure
    had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb.  Based
    on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt.
    
    The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no
    significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
    Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge
    axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the
    next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly
    convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the
    cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and
    east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer
    trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out
    of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by
    the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern
    Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on
    day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an
    outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to
    the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
    track models.
    
    Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity
    forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support
    steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is
    forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong,
    anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated
    strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong
    pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind
    shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination
    of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much
    stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening
    despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity
    forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching
    its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest
    sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing.
    
    Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
    Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
    days.  These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
    conditions and life-threatening rip currents.  See products issued
    by your local weather office for additional information.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  15/2100Z 29.3N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
     12H  16/0600Z 29.8N  77.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
     24H  16/1800Z 30.1N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
     36H  17/0600Z 30.4N  75.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
     48H  17/1800Z 30.7N  73.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
     72H  18/1800Z 31.7N  68.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
     96H  19/1800Z 35.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
    120H  20/1800Z 39.6N  56.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
    
    [Image of initial wind radii]

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