Today and tonight:
A weak front remains stalled across the area this morning, delineating drier conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across north LA/AR/northwest MS from a more moist airmass with isolated showers, low clouds, and patchy fog extending from central LA through south and east MS. Through the day, this front will make additional eastward progress in the northern part of the area, further reducing rain chances for the Greenwood/Grenada area, and to some extent the MLU-VKS-JAN to GTR area as well. However, lesser southward progress will occur with the front, and thus the Mississippi, Louisiana, South MS, the Pine Belt, and much of the I-59 corridor will remain in the soupier airmass with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Convection will be largely diurnally-driven, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and decreasingly considerably by early evening, with only isolated activity south of the front tonight. Moderate instability could support a few more robust updrafts, but wind shear will be a bit weaker today than yesterday, so severe storms are unlikely.
Friday into next week…
Our unsettled weather pattern continues through the rest of the week into the weekend. Drier air will continue across the northern part of the forecast area early Friday. PW values of 1.5 inches or less will be present to start the day from I-20 and north. In addition, dewpoints will range from the lower 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. This drier airmass will remain in place through much of the day, which will result in a lowered chance for any rain or storms. The best chances for those will be across the south where the better moisture will exist. Any convection that develops on Friday should diminish through the evening hours, resulting in a dry night. Moisture will slowly increase across the area through the night into the weekend. Dewpoints will increase to the upper 60s and near 70 through the region with widespread lower 70s dewpoints across the entire area by Monday(even mid 70s in the south…yuck!).
With precipitable water values in excess of 2-2.2 inches through the week, this will result in efficient locally heavy downpours through the week and a more tropical airmass than we are even currently in. The overall weather pattern shows that initially, the upper trough will move off to the east that has been over the region. As this occurs, it will result in a rather weak upper level pattern at least heading into the weekend. A cutoff low that is over the Big Bend of Texas will slowly drift in our direction through the weekend, or remain rather stationary across central Texas. As this occurs, this will help aforementioned moisture surge into the region and generate tropical downpours across the region. While a thunderstorm is possible, lack of instability due to cloud cover and this warm, tropical regime would support more in the way of showers across the region. While most of the better coverage of showers will occur in the daytime, some will linger through the overnight hours as well. This rainy pattern looks to continue into late week and the weekend, though coverage may start to be less as ridge begins to build back over the region. During time period, temperatures will be in the 80s. Though cloud cover and rain may keep them lower in spots at times. Certainly, the cloud cover will help conditions feel sort of better than what could be given the muggy airmass in place. This should keep heat indices rather low.
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WEATHER FORECAST
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm.
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.