• Mon. Jul 15th, 2024

Here’s the Pine Belt Thanksgiving Weekend Weather Outlook

Expect a nice, dry & cooler than normal pattern over the next day as surface & mid-level ridge axis build over the region. Tonight, expect the center of the mid-level ridge to center over Texas & surface ridge of ~1030mb high pressure to center over the ArkLaTex, Mid-South & northern Mississippi. This will help the driest air, with PWs close to or less than a quarter of an inch to settle over the area, with the driest air just off to our north. Due to this & efficient radiational cooling & light northerly winds tonight, expect temperatures to bottom out ~6-8 degrees below normal. There will be some potential for some freezing temperatures in the north, especially in the Highway 82 corridor & maybe some frost in places where wind can become light.

Expect another nice day Wednesday as the mid-level ridge axis builds in the region. Expect somewhat similar thermal profiles, potentially slightly cooler in spots. A shortwave trough will be shunted further south in the somewhat zonal flow & moving through the southern Plains & Texas. This will keep all moisture & rain chances off to our southwest but could slowly increase moisture aloft as lift increases. With a little better moisture aloft, can`t rule out some passing high clouds, especially later into the evening. Otherwise, expect north-northeast winds & continued below normal warmth in the mid-upper 50s to near 60 degrees in the south.
Wednesday night through early next week:
We are still expecting a train of three upper level disturbances to come across the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night through Sunday. Fortunately, as of this time, we are not anticipating any hazardous weather in our region in association with any one of these disturbances.
The first disturbance on Wednesday night will have most of its energy and lift focused to our south and will produce showers and embedded thunderstorms mainly over the Gulf of Mexico. There is still a chance for some light rain showers to extend north into the Pine Belt, but no real impact is anticipated. Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonably chilly with lows in the 40s  where clouds will interrupt radiational cooling potential.
Thursday through Thursday night will find our region in between systems with mostly clear skies and temperatures slightly below normal.
On Friday, a larger and amplifying disturbance coming out of the Southern Plains will produce lots of atmospheric lift and moisture convergence and advection in our region, especially by late in the day. The heaviest generated precipitation should be confined near the Gulf Coast where low level cyclogenesis should likely be focused as the Gulf baroclinic zone tries to return a bit north.
Widespread rain showers should translate through the region Friday afternoon through the evening hours with locally heavy downpours not out of the question, especially if high amounts of synoptic lift can focus areas of elevated, slantwise convection. However, at this point, even if model forecast rainfall amounts overachieve a bit, we do not think there will be enough of rain to cause anything more than very isolated flooding concerns.
Uncertainty increases some for the next system coming in on Sunday as another big lobe of energy aloft pivots around the south end of a large, cyclonic gyre aloft in south-central Canada/Midwest/Great Lakes. There are some disagreements amongst models concerning how deeply into the Lower MS Valley this disturbance will focus its energy and how much deep moisture will be left (in the wake of Friday`s system) to contribute to precipitation production in our region.
I’m confident that no big cold front will come in following Friday`s system and temperatures will moderate a great deal on Saturday and Saturday night with some moisture return at the surface, in advance of the Sunday system. But model consensus blossoms showers and some embedded thunderstorms mainly to our east on Sunday as the energy associated with the system translates across the Lower MS Valley, most likely because deep moisture is lacking. However, there are some individual models (such as the 12Z GEM) which manage to produce a good deal of showers, and maybe even a few strong storms. The latter solution, if it comes to pass, would be concerning owing to worrisome combinations of wind shear and at least marginal instability.
Following the system on Sunday we expect a solid cold front to once again introduce below normal temperatures to the region with any further inclement weather probably holding off until late next week.

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