December 18, 2017
The Euro’s first three weeks are very cold.
The week ending December 29:
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The week ending January 5:
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The week ending January 12:
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Then the flip occurs on the model. The week ending January 19:
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The week ending January 26:
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The week ending February 2:
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The 46 day total is cold, because of how cold it is up front.
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On the other hand, the CFSv2 runs continue to be cold:
In 10 day increments, the period ending January 2:
The 10 days ending January 12:
The 10 days ending January 22:
The 10 days ending February 1:
The Verdict
There is no question in my mind that the back three weeks will be warmer than what is coming in the shorter term, but there is a question as to how mild it will be. The CFSv2 is showing that questions still abound about that. In the meantime, through January 10, the pattern will go a long way in showing that our ideas from fall had merit. Unfortunately those analogs go different ways once to mid winter.
