• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

    February 28, 2018

    • Fast starting very warm summer for much of U.S.
      • Centered in the Plains.
    • Early ending of Summer possible though (opposite of last year)
    • Long-standing analogs from last year have 2006 and 1951 now leading the way.
      • Weak El Niño may try to develop.
    • Very little cool anywhere in the nation.
    • Hurricane preliminary forecast due out around March 10.

    The analog package:

    1962 and 1969 are in there because of the March Pattern. Why? Well this pattern should turn very dry in the southern Plains, planting the seeds for the feedback that leads to the warmth later on.

    I think when we see a hurricane season like last year it’s more than just the hurricane season, but a reflection of the overall pattern. You can see the thread of the weather carrying on. The European model says we come out of this La Niña (which I think is right) and then into an El Niño (debatable). If that is correct right off the bat we have two years that have the same thing happen (1951 and 2006).

    The year least like our analog package is 2011, as we stayed in a healthy La Niña then. In 1934 there was a 90-day running mean of the SOI of -9 for July-September (no official El Niño SST records were kept prior to 1950). That summer scorched in the Plains:

    The modeling can see no cold anywhere, and it’s for a couple of reasons. At least over the U.S., I don’t think there will be much cool air around. Secondly, it’s so obscenely warm in the arctic that the mixing of that air will leave a model just having it above normal everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere (but lower the magnitude as it spreads it out).

    Take the Euro:

    It looks a lot like our analogs in its own way, but again, it can find no cool over land. I can’t tell you now if anyone over the U.S. will be cooler than normal, but I do believe much of the nation centered over the southern Plains will be warmer than normal, and it will be a major difference from last year.

    Last year:

    The Verdict

    A hot summer, especially early on, is on the way. The hottest weather should emanate out of the southern Plains.

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