• Wed. May 22nd, 2024

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271156
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
756 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1155 UTC.

…MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ…

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to
01N31W, to the 50W along the equator. Precipitation scattered
moderate, with isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 08N
between 08W and 20W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 10N
southward to the equator, between 20W and 40W.

…DISCUSSION…

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO, AND INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

An upper level trough extends from the NE/north central Gulf of
Mexico to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
stationary front cuts across Andros Island in the Bahamas, through
the Straits of Florida, to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Precipitation along the northeast Guatemala coastline, stretching
southwest to El Salvador. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
rainshowers cover inland and coastal areas of northern South
America, between 75W and 80W south of 15N. Prevailing easterly
flow across the eastern Caribbean islands are driven by ridging
from a 1034mb high in the North Atlantic centered around 41N39W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO…

A cold front continues to work south, stretching from the big bend
of Florida near 30N84W, southwest to NE Mexico around 25N98W.
This cold front is associated with sparse areas of isolated
precipitation.

The current cold front will move southeast through tonight with high
pressure building in the northwest gulf overnight. The surface
high will lift to the northeast and move inland on Sun and extend
west-southwest across the northern gulf waters through Wed.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA…

A NE-to-SW oriented middle level trough extends from the north
central Caribbean Sea into the SW corner of the area.
Precipitation: Scattered strong rainshowers cover the area from
05N to 11N between 71W and 78W, mostly in Colombia and a bit in NW
Venezuela.

A surface trough is moving over Hispaniola. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible through the day from 16N to 21N between
68W and 72W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail in the south central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds are
expected elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN…

A central Atlantic stationary front covers the area that is from
Gulf of Mexico, extending into the southwestern Atlantic from
24N80W, through 31N71W and continuing northward. A 1018 mb low
pressure center is near 27N52W and expected to dissipate while it
meanders to the southwest today. Precipitation: light to moderate
showers are noted on the east side of this low, between 21N and
27N, between 35W and 50W.

The current stationary front will dissipate overnight tonight. A
cold front will move into the northwest waters on tonight, reach
from 31N74W to southern Florida on Saturday night, and then
dissipate slowly by Sunday morning. Another cold front moving
south of 31N on Sunday, will reach from 30N65W to the northern
Bahamas on Monday night, and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas on
Tuesday night.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MANOUGIAN

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