An unsettled pattern will remain over the area throughout the forecast period. Bermuda high off the southeastern US coast along with a southwesterly flow aloft will keep the moisture content very high over the next few days with PW values remaining at or near 2 inches. A Trough extending from the northeastern states down to the central Gulf will slowly drift eastward by Saturday. Meanwhile…a weak cutoff low over Texas will begin to drift slowly underneath an upper mid-west ridge following along a southwesterly flow over the weekend.
Given very high PW values and a very stubborn slow moving pattern expect a soggy weekend over the Gulf Coast with rainfall amounts averaging 4 to 6 inches along and west of I-55 with around 2 to 4 inches along coastal Mississippi. A flash flood watch will be highly considered by the NWS for the weekend rain event from Saturday afternoon through Sunday for the afternoon updated forecast.
The WPC has outlooked a large portion of the forecast area for a slight chance of excessive rainfall over the weekend. Convective temperatures will also remain only in the low to mid 80s allowing for convection to get started in the mid to late morning hours and continue intermittently throughout the daytime hours. Rainfall likely to become heavy at times with some areas seeing multiple rounds of heavy rain showers and storms especially Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures in most places will hold in the mid 80s and some places only the lower 80s for highs over the weekend do to cloud cover and early development of convection. Overnights will remain warm and muggy do to the high moisture levels.
The Gulf Coast DAY BY DAY Forecast:
Today
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Saturday
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 83. Light east wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Saturday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
Showers and thunderstorms. High near 79. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Sunday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
