Crucial Linkage to 95-96 in SST,MJO

When was the last time in December people were fired up about the rest of the winter?

We continue to see links to 95-96. The SST has cooled in the eastern Indian ocean northwest of Australia and is similar in the east pac off south America, and the water is normal to above in the northeast Pacific

I like warm over cold east of dateline in the pacific, cold in enso 1.2 vs 3.4

We have that

The area around Indonesia has cooled which would favor the next convective burst being less in that area. Also wamth surrounded by cool and a natural area of convergence for enhanced phases 8,1,2

here is the SST same time in 1995

Now look at the MJO into warm phases early then into December colder phases

but its into the null phase to end the month

current euro

first 3 months of 1996 Keep in mind there was a warmer period for 2 weeks in Jan but it was nothing like last year ( Jan is in red, Feb green, March blue)

The big key was the avoidance on the warm phases, but it did warm up in the east and reverse the cold for a time

Jan 1-15

16-30

In the meantime day 0-10

11-20

16 day GEFS snow

try to enjoy it be you in the plains or the south or the east ( assuming you want some winter)