BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018
…AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER… …HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY… …THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING… SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION —LOCATION…19.2N 85.5W ABOUT 130 MI…205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI…305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
Spaghetti Models
WATCHES AND WARNINGS –CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK —At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance aircraft is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND —WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Tuesday.
ANIMATED MODELS
ECMWF-EURO MODEL RUN
GFS MODEL RUN
GFS MODEL RUN FOR THE EAST COAST
CMC-CANADIAN MODEL RUN
Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018
Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east, closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt. Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central United States.
A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough. The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario, however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing) differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track guidance spread. Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about 36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.
Key Messages:
1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials.
INVEST AL-92
CARIBBEAN SATELLITE
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018 For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Michael, located over the northwest Caribbean Sea near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. A broad non-tropical low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Azores continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north and east of its center. This system could gradually acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next day or two while it moves slowly eastward. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development to occur. Additional information on this system can be found in high seas forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent. 4
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
