Why a 50% chance of rain usually means a 100% chance of confusion.
It’s one of the most misunderstood terms in all of the weather, the chance of rain. You hear it and see it in just about every weather forecast nowadays, but…
Snow to pick up in typical La Nina late winter areas
With the dip in the SOI, storminess will increase and snow will occur but note until the SSW induced tanking of the AO and then NAO, it will be messy…
Lot’s to Talk about on What’s ahead for us this year!!!
There is much to talk about this morning First of all the European ensembles which earlier in the week had a warm looking 10-15 ( still do) have a cold…
Warming arctic at 30mb
Some recent SSWs – 2009. and 2001. AO is drifting down. It should accelerate. the GEFS sees the normal -AO temperature anomalies across the hemisphere. The 16 day GFS shows…
The Euro is Flat Out Strange
So we go from this on the 00z turn from Wednesday evening that the entire weekly package was based on For 00z Friday Feb 16 to this at 12z yesterday…
UPDATE: The new European is warm. I don’t believe it!!!
This looks like the ANTILOG to what we look for to get warmth over the eastern U.S. The model run is very warm and bearish, once past the front 10…
Euro Temp Update
It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite. I would…
