Expect the rainfall to let up a little bit after midnight tonight and through the morning hours on Thursday as the frontal forcing relaxes, though there will still be some light rain around. As a cutoff low over the Southwest US ejects across the southern Plains overnight tonight and into the Southeast region tomorrow, another round of rain will begin its impact on the Pine Belt tomorrow afternoon.
This round of rain could bring rain totals as much as 1-3″ to the area again. With all of this forecast rain falling on top of our already saturated soils, the Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include the Pine Belt and will be in effect starting Thursday morning. With all of this rain and overcast skies, temperatures will fluctuate very little over the next 24 hours or so. Temps overnight will fall only about 5 degrees or so with lows ranging from the low 40s to the low 50s. Thursday highs will be similar to today with temps ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s
Thursday night: The threat for heavy rain will continue into Thursday night, especially over eastern MS where strong moisture transport and lift will continue ahead of the closed low. Guidance is showing a lot of variation in QPF for this last round of heavy rainfall and so confidence is not all that high with specific/max amounts and locations, so the NWS will continue to reevaluate the flash flood watch as we approach this period.
Friday through Tuesday: The passage of the upper low will finally break down the pesky southwesterly upper-level flow, resulting in a decrease in rain chances as it exits the region Friday. Though heavier rains are expected to be gone by Friday morning, pesky clouds and light rain associated with the upper low will remain possible through the daytime. This may help hold temps down in the upper 40s over much of the western half of the area. Dry conditions are anticipated by Friday night with decreasing clouds as low-level flow becomes more anticyclonic.
Saturday through Monday: Mid and upper ridging will build across the area over the weekend, with a surface ridge expanding from the Gulf Coast along the East Coast. Fingers crossed, dry conditions are expected for the first weekend of 2019. With the upper jet becoming displaced well north of the area and mid/upper heights somewhat anomalously high, temperatures will moderate to above normal through Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday: At the end of the forecast period, a quick moving upper trough and a cold front are expected to pass across the region early next week bringing a chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday. Though guidance is progging a sharp trough with respectable upper forcing, limited return flow ahead of the system looks to limit instability.
Hattiesburg Area Weather Forecast:
