A Huge Fight in the Longer Range Models

The euro is lining up an analog idea. Remember when we laid this out back in Feb, the analogs we showed said to watch for this have another fit of cold late in March and April. I am simply reviewing the movie scenes here. The 1962 and 1969 analogs for instance. in any case, the US generated GEFS wants no part of it and says after the front 10 days winter is essentially over.

Look at its day 11

There is plenty of cold across the north, but that kind of ridge in the southeast is a big surge of warmth. Look at its 5k

The euro yesterday for what was day 12 looked like this

Said then it should correct east. here it is now for day 11

Its 5 k has a major cold shot

This is in line with what I am thinking, Same kind of things happened in the analog years we have shown you ( I am not going to go back and reshow them but I do want the scenes of the movie remembered). So when I see this, I see a model supporting me and so I like it,

Interestingly enough it’s the Euro that usually drags its tail in the west. But think about this, The big ridge in the last 2 weeks of Feb was warm phase MJO driven with 20 days in phase 7. There is no warm phase of the MJO on the way, There is a cooling Canada with increased zonal potential energy that models cant handle and patterns from the past that tell us to look for the cold. I am in Cleveland right now and people that know what I do are making no secret about how sick they are of it being cold. Well this week was the week the surge was supposed to occur ( coming up) of warmth) and ironically enough the reason it may not snow in a lot of places is causing a storm is suppressed to the south. A week ago it wasn’t supposed to because there was supposed to be a surge of warmth. My suspicions are widespread cold returns to the nation from the plains east March 25-April 4.

It’s not like it did not happen in previous years we have looked at