The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with several forecasts indicating a potentially active season.
Here’s a summary of the predictions:
Overall Activity:
- Most forecasts suggest an above-average season, with a higher number of named storms and hurricanes compared to the 30-year average (1991-2020).
- For example, Colorado State University (CSU) predicts 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, exceeding the historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
- Other organizations like AccuWeather and The Weather Company also predict above-average activity.
Contributing Factors:
- Warm Atlantic Waters: Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are warmer than average, providing more energy for storms to develop and intensify.
- Neutral ENSO Conditions: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral phase, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is significantly impacting the Atlantic.
- Neutral or La Niña conditions generally favor hurricane formation in the Atlantic.
Landfall Probability:
- The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the continental U.S. coastline is predicted to be above average.
- Specifically, CSU predicts a 51% chance of a major hurricane landfall for the entire U.S. coastline, compared to the average of 43%.
- The Gulf Coast is predicted to have a higher probability of storm impact than the East Coast.
Important Considerations:
- It’s crucial to remember that these are predictions, and the actual season’s activity can vary.
- Coastal residents should always prepare for hurricane season, regardless of the forecast.
- Stay informed about the latest forecasts and warnings from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
In summary, while the 2025 hurricane season is predicted to be more active than average, it’s important to stay informed and prepared for potential storms.
