The tropical track density map above was created by analyzing analog years, which are past years that have weather patterns similar to current and projected weather patterns. Analog years are often used to predict future trends and impacts during a hurricane season. They can be based solely on the El Niño—Southern Oscillation or on a combination of weather patterns and teleconnections, which are weather patterns occurring over another part of the globe that can strongly influence current or future weather in a particular area of concern.
After an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2018, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting 2019 to result in a near- to slightly above-normal season with 12 to 14 storms.
Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes and two to four are forecast to become major hurricanes.
“This year, we think that there will be a few less tropical storms and lower numbers in hurricanes, but again, the old saying is ‘it only takes one’,” AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
After the U.S. took a battering in 2018, thanks largely to Michael and Florence, meteorologists are once again forecasting impacts for the
United States.
According to Kottlowski, two to four are likely.
During that season, Hurricane Camille slammed into the Gulf coastline, making landfall in Waveland, Mississippi, and causing widespread damage to several coastal areas, including Mobile, Alabama. It became one of only three Category 5 hurricanes on record to impact the U.S.
But that doesn’t mean we’ll experience something similar this year, Kottlowski said.
