Wet weather will continue into Thursday as a TX Panhandle upper low tracks eastward toward the area. Ahead of this feature, a departing upper jet max over the Ohio Valley and an approaching upper jet max along the NW Gulf Coast will couple to promote strong large-scale upper lift over the Lower MS Valley. This will occur in an anomalously moist airmass, characterized by PW in the 90th percentile of climo.
Right now it appears the heaviest rain from this second round of precip will occur from the daytime/midday hours Thursday through the early evening. Most available guidance continues to suggest 2-5″ storm totals (including rain from Wednesday) in the Flash Flood Watch area, though the NAM and some of its CAM family members are hinting at northward shift in the axis of highest totals.
The HREF heavy rain axis remains more in line with the Euro and GFS, so we won`t make any adjustments to our current thinking (though we`ll continue to monitor the possible northward trend). Given the above factors and saturated antecedent ground conditions with many local streams and rivers running high as is, we will continue an elevated flooding threat across much of Mississippi and a Flash Flood Watch has been issued by the NWS for some our Western countries. Additional tweaks may be needed to the watch as the system evolves over the next couple days and more reliable CAM guidance becomes available.
The passage of the upper low will finally break down the pesky southwesterly upper-level flow, resulting in a decrease in rain chances as it exits the region Friday. Though heavier rains are expected to be gone by Friday morning, pesky clouds and light rain associated with the upper low will remain possible through the daytime. This may help hold temps down in the upper 40s over much of the western half of Mississippi.
Dry conditions are anticipated by Friday night with decreasing clouds as low-level flow becomes more anticyclonic.
Saturday through Monday: Mid and upper ridging will build across the area over the weekend, with a surface ridge expanding from the Gulf Coast along the East Coast.
Fingers crossed, dry conditions are expected for the first weekend of 2019. With the upper jet becoming displaced well north of the area and mid/upper heights somewhat anomalously high, temperatures will moderate to above normal through Monday.
Monday night into Tuesday: At the end of the forecast period, a quick moving upper trough and a cold front are expected to pass across the region early next week bringing a chance of showers Monday night into Tuesday. Though guidance is progging a sharp trough with respectable upper forcing, limited return flow ahead of the system looks to limit instability.
I’m keeping Thunder out of the forecast at this point, but it isn`t out of the question you might hear a little rumble of Thunder. The good news I’m not Expecting and Severe Weather in the Pine Belt. This is mainly a Rain and Flashing Flooding Event for our area.
HATTIESBURG AREA WEATHER FORECAST:
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