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# First Alert Hurricane

"Precision Tracking for Peace of Mind"

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## Posts

- [Blog](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gulf-coast-1-trusted-weather-source-2/)
- [THE “GULF MONSOON” IS BREAKING UP: A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-gulf-monsoon-is-breaking-up-a-major-pattern-shift-is-underway/) - THE “GULF MONSOON” IS BREAKING UP: A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY If you’re tired of the seemingly endless tropical downpours we’ve experienced over the past several weeks, there is finally some good news. A significant change in the weather pattern is developing that will dramatically reduce rain chances by Monday and Tuesday. Here’s what’s
- [Navigating Stormy Weather in South Mississippi: A 5-Day Gulf Coast Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/navigating-stormy-weather-in-south-mississippi-a-5-day-gulf-coast-forecast/) - Understanding the Current Stormy Weather Patterns in South Mississippi The Gulf Coast region, particularly South Mississippi, is currently experiencing a period of stormy weather influenced by a combination of atmospheric factors. One significant contributor is the presence of low-pressure systems that have settled over the area. These systems are characterized by rising air, which leads Explore the current stormy weather patterns affecting South Mississippi, influenced by low-pressure systems and high humidity. Understand the implications of ongoing flooding in key areas like Biloxi and Hattiesburg and learn how local authorities and emergency services are responding to these challenges. Stay informed with a detailed 5-day weather forecast for the Gulf Coast, highlighting temperatures, storm warnings, and safety tips for residents. Discover essential preparedness strategies for severe weather events, including emergency kit recommendations and evacuation routes. By equipping yourself with knowledge and resources, you can effectively navigate the unpredictable weather conditions that characterize this region, ensuring safety for you and your loved ones.
- [South Mississippi radar discussion this morning](https://firstalerthurricane.com/south-mississippi-radar-discussion-this-morning/)
- [What happens if El Niño suppresses the Main Development Region (MDR)… but the Gulf and western Atlantic stay unusually warm?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/what-happens-if-el-nino-suppresses-the-main-development-region-mdr-but-the-gulf-and-western-atlantic-stay-unusually-warm/) - ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER — TROPICAL UPDATE With Meteorologist Louis Smith Thursday, May 14, 2026 As we move closer to the start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season, one of the biggest questions remains: What happens if El Niño suppresses the Main Development Region (MDR)… but the Gulf and western Atlantic stay unusually warm?
- [ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER — TROPICAL UPDATE May 14, 2026](https://firstalerthurricane.com/accurate-first-weather-tropical-update-may-14-2026/) - ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER — TROPICAL UPDATE With Meteorologist Louis Smith Thursday, May 14, 2026 The tropics are beginning to slowly wake up as we move closer to the official start of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season on June 1st. At this time, there are NO active tropical cyclones anywhere in the Atlantic Basin, but
- [Can you believe it? Hurricane Season “unofficially” starts this Friday, May 15th.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/can-you-believe-it-hurricane-season-unofficially-starts-this-friday-may-15th/) - Can you believe it? Hurricane Season “unofficially” starts this Friday, May 15th. That’s when the National Hurricane Center begins issuing their daily Tropical Weather Outlooks four times a day: 8 AM 2 PM 8 PM 2 AM While the official Atlantic Hurricane Season doesn’t begin until June 1st, these outlooks are what give us
- [Two River Flood Warnings in Mississippi - Pearl River and Pascagoula River](https://firstalerthurricane.com/two-river-flood-warnings-in-mississippi-pearl-river-and-pascagoula-river/) - RIVER FLOOD WARNING UPDATE We are down to two River Flood Warnings across the area as of this evening. Pearl River at Pearl River • Minor flood stage • River is falling • Expected to fall below flood stage early next week Pascagoula River at Graham Ferry • Still rising • Forecast to crest in minor flood
- [Meteorologist Louis Smith explains the latest drought conditions across the South](https://firstalerthurricane.com/4720-2/) - ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER – SOUTHERN DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE Meteorologist Louis Smith explains the latest drought conditions across the South: The Southern United States saw a dramatic split in weather conditions this past week, with soaking Gulf Coast rainfall on one side and expanding drought concerns on the other. Gulf Coast Drenched With Heavy Rain
- [Serious concern is growing for a potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak across portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/serious-concern-is-growing-for-a-potentially-dangerous-severe-weather-outbreak-across-portions-of-the-plains-and-upper-midwest-sunday-into-monday/) - MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING Serious concern is growing for a potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak across portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest Sunday into Monday. Areas of greatest concern currently include: Kansas Nebraska Iowa Northwest Missouri Southeast South Dakota Southwest Minnesota Main threats may include: • Strong tornadoes • Very large hail
- [Every tornado has its own shape, structure, and personality and some look absolutely nightmare-fueled. ](https://firstalerthurricane.com/every-tornado-has-its-own-shape-structure-and-personality-and-some-look-absolutely-nightmare-fueled/) - Nature has a terrifying way of showing off. Every tornado has its own shape, structure, and personality — and some look absolutely nightmare-fueled. From thin “rope” tornadoes to massive “mega-wedges,” no two storms are exactly alike. Which tornado type looks the most terrifying to YOU? Rope Wedge Elephant Trunk Drill Bit Hourglass Twins Mega-Wedge
- [ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER — 72 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS MS, LA, AL](https://firstalerthurricane.com/accurate-first-weather-72-hour-rainfall-totals-ms-la-al/) - ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER — 72 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS With Meteorologist Louis Smith A very impressive swath of rainfall was recorded across portions of Southeast Louisiana, South Mississippi, and Southwest Alabama over the past 72 hours. The heaviest rain axis stretched from the New Orleans metro eastward along the Gulf Coast into coastal Mississippi and
- [NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the tropical Pacific is rapidly moving toward an El Niño pattern](https://firstalerthurricane.com/noaas-climate-prediction-center-shows-the-tropical-pacific-is-rapidly-moving-toward-an-el-nino-pattern/) - EL NIÑO WATCH: Pacific Heating Up Fast The latest data from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center shows the tropical Pacific is rapidly moving toward an El Niño pattern. As of May 14, 2026, CPC gives El Niño an 82% chance of developing between May and July, with a very high chance it continues into the winter
- [National Hurricane Center to issue new forecast cone graphics for 2026 hurricane season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-2025-hurricane-season-expected-to-be-slightly-above-average/) - As part of a suite of product improvements for the 2026 hurricane season [PDF], NOAA’s National Hurricane Center (NHC) is implementing two new tropical products and services: a new operational hurricane track cone map, and new storm surge alerts for Hawaii. “These improvements empower communities to prepare earlier and more effectively for dangerous hazards from tropical storms
- [The storm prediction center Outlook for May 8, 2026](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-storm-prediction-center-outlook-for-may-8-2026/) - For today, Friday, May 8, 2026, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has moved the primary severe threat further south and east as a cold front continues to sag toward the coast. Severe Weather Outlook A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) is in place for portions of the central Gulf Coast, including Southern Mississippi, Southern
- [Camp Mystic Devastating Flooding, what can we learn from it?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/camp-mystic-devastating-flooding-what-can-we-learn-from-it/) - The Texas floods could have been mitigated through improved flood warning systems, better land use planning, and enhanced infrastructure. Specifically, implementing a comprehensive flood warning system with sirens, investing in robust flood control measures like levees and dams, and restricting development in flood-prone areas could significantly reduce the impact of future flooding. Additionally, addressing climate
- [Tropical System in the Southwestern Gulf of America: An Evening Update from the National Hurricane Center](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-system-in-the-southwestern-gulf-of-america-an-evening-update-from-the-national-hurricane-center/) - National Hurricane latest Update: An area of showers and thunderstorms currently over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas is expected to move west northwestward into the Bay of Campeche Saturday or Saturday night, where a low-pressure area could form. Subsequent slow development is possible on Sunday or Monday if the system remains offshore of the Stay informed about the developing tropical system in the southwestern Gulf of America. As of the latest updates, the National Hurricane Center reports on the potential impacts of this storm, including heavy rainfall and strong winds affecting coastal areas. Residents should be prepared for possible evacuation and maintain communication channels. Learn about the forecast and necessary precautions to ensure safety during this natural weather event.
- [National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook for June 26, 2025: Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Region](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-hurricane-center-tropical-outlook-for-june-26-2025-gulf-of-mexico-and-atlantic-region/) - Introduction to the Tropical Outlook The National Hurricane Center (NHC) plays a crucial role in forecasting tropical weather activity, providing timely updates and analyses that are vital for preparedness and response efforts. A tropical outlook is a tool used by the NHC to assess the current and potential future development of tropical systems, including hurricanes Learn about the National Hurricane Center's role in forecasting tropical weather activity and the importance of staying informed during hurricane season. This comprehensive guide covers current climate influences, tropical cyclone activity forecasts, preparedness tips for residents, and the economic impacts of tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic regions. Stay vigilant and enhance your community's resilience against hurricanes with timely information and proactive planning.
- [NHC Tropical Update for June 26, 20252: What You Need to Know](https://firstalerthurricane.com/nhc-tropical-update-for-june-26-20252-what-you-need-to-know/) - Introduction to the NHC Tropical Update As the Atlantic hurricane season progresses, it is essential to stay informed about the latest developments in tropical weather. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) provides regular updates to ensure that residents in coastal areas are aware of any potential threats. This blog post covers the significant findings from the Stay informed about the latest developments in tropical weather with the National Hurricane Center's update for June 26, 20252. This blog post highlights current tropical systems, monitoring efforts, and emphasizes the importance of preparedness for residents in coastal areas. Discover essential safety measures and tips to ensure you and your family are ready for any severe weather. Keep track of changing conditions and plan ahead with reliable forecasts and resources provided by the NHC.
- [Tracking the Remnants of Andrea](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tracking-the-remnants-of-andrea/) - Remnants of ANDREA Updated June 25, 2025 Located at 39.6°N, 42.1°W Minimum Pressure: 1015 mb Maximum Winds: 30 kt Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 nm Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb Storm Radius: 60 nm
- [TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-warning-issued-portions-southern-windward-islands/) - BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 800 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...7.7N 51.4W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
- [WE ARE MOVING TO ACCURATE FIRST WEATHER](https://firstalerthurricane.com/we-are-moving-to-accurate-first-weather/) - ACCURATEFIRSTWEATHER.COM Accurate First Weather provides Weather Forecasts, Updates, and Alerts for the United States including Severe Weather, Winter Weather, and our specialty, Tropical Weather. We run our site on Professionalism and Dedication and are well known for our custom weather graphics and descriptive up-to-the-minute forecasts. Providing accurate, no-hype weather information to the public as
- [The Central American Gyre itself can cause heavy rainfall and flooding in Central America](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-central-american-gyre-itself-can-cause-heavy-rainfall-and-flooding-in-central-america/) - A possibility of tropical development exists in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, particularly during the second week of June. This development may be linked to the Central American Gyre, a large area of low pressure that feeds off moisture from the Pacific. Although the potential for development is low, it remains a possibility
- [First Day of 2025 Hurricane Season and Something is already Cooking in the Tropics](https://firstalerthurricane.com/first-day-of-2025-hurricane-season-and-something-is-already-cooking-in-the-tropics/) - A tropical disturbance is potentially developing in the Western Caribbean and may move into the Gulf next week. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure with a slight chance of development over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance could potentially become a tropical depression, particularly as it moves into the A tropical disturbance is potentially developing in the Western Caribbean and may move into the Gulf next week. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure with a slight chance of development over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance could potentially become a tropical depression, particularly as it moves into the A tropical disturbance is potentially developing in the Western Caribbean and may move into the Gulf next week. The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure with a slight chance of development over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance could potentially become a tropical depression, particularly as it moves into the
- [Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above normal for 2025](https://firstalerthurricane.com/atlantic-hurricane-season-is-predicted-to-be-above-for-2025/) - The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be above average, with several forecasts indicating a potentially active season. Here's a summary of the predictions: Overall Activity: Most forecasts suggest an above-average season, with a higher number of named storms and hurricanes compared to the 30-year average (1991-2020). For example, Colorado State University (CSU) predicts
- [A RISK FOR SEVERE STORM THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH](https://firstalerthurricane.com/a-risk-for-severe-storm-thursday-over-the-south/) - There is a "Slight" risk for severe storms in western/southwestern portions of the area late Thursday and a "Marginal" risk for areas generally along and west of I-55. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. Please continue to check for additional updates. Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in a low-level warm advection regime
- [Some Caribbean islands see almost 'total destruction' after Hurricane Beryl](https://firstalerthurricane.com/some-caribbean-islands-see-almost-total-destruction-after-hurricane-beryl/) - A more complete picture emerged Wednesday of the extensive damage wrought by Hurricane Beryl's trek across the Windward Islands, revealing destruction and at least seven deaths. At least three islands report more than 90% of the homes and buildings either destroyed or severely damaged, the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency reported Wednesday. All three are within the chain
- [2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook/) - Inaugural video of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, taking a dive into the forecast for how active the season will be....
- [Forecasters predict an extremely active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/forecasters-predict-an-extremely-active-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/) - An extremely active Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2024, the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team says in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 4. Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with co-authors Dr. Michael Bell, Alexander DesRosiers, and Levi Silvers, the CSU team is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major
- [NHC host a webinar on lessons learned from the 2023 hurricane season and what's new for the 2024](https://firstalerthurricane.com/nhc-host-a-webinar-on-lessons-learned-from-the-2023-hurricane-season-and-whats-new-for-the-2024/) - Join us online next Tuesday, April 23 from 1-2 pm EDT as the NOAA Southeast & Caribbean Regional Team (SECART) and NHC host a webinar on lessons learned from the 2023 hurricane season and what's new for the 2024 products and services. Registration: https://register.gotowebinar.com/regi.../2025349235366879834
- [What Do Meteorologists Predict for the 2024 Hurricane Season?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/what-do-meteorologists-predict-for-the-2024-hurricane-season/) - If you live or work near the Atlantic or Gulf coasts, listen up: Some scientists are predicting this year’s hurricane season will be extremely active. They include Ryan Truchelut, the chief meteorologist at Weather Tiger in Tallahassee, Florida, who recently spoke with Living on Earth about what we can expect this hurricane season. This interview
- [2024 Atlantic hurricane forecast shows explosive potential](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2024-atlantic-hurricane-forecast-shows-explosive-potential/) - EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2024 We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active. Current El Niño conditions are likely to transition to La Niña conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central
- [Severe Weather Tuesday Afternoon in Mississippi](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-weather-tuesday-afternoon-in-mississippi/) - Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. As this potential event is still several days away, please stay tuned for any updates to timing and impacts.
- [The Gulf Coast Area Forecast Discussion June 5, 2023](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-gulf-coast-area-forecast-discussion-june-5-2023/) - Isolated/scattered convection is ongoing along a boundary extending from Wilkinson Co., MS to upper Plaquemines Parish, LA. WPC has outlined this area as a surface trough, and although there is not much of a wind shift along this feature, there is a clear moisture/Theta-E boundary over this region. Some updrafts have managed to climb allowing
- [System in Gulf has stalled southeast of Gulfport; could become tropical Depression](https://firstalerthurricane.com/system-in-gulf-has-stalled-southeast-of-gulfport-could-become-tropical-depression/) - A low-pressure system that was expected to leave the Gulf of Mexico this weekend has slowed down, extending its stay. In an announcement Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center gave the system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two to seven days. The system formed Tuesday from a grouping of thunderstorms and rain showers. UPDATE FROM
- [No firm travel plans for the solar eclipse? Here’s what to expect if you wing it.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/no-firm-travel-plans-solar-eclipse-heres-expect-wing/) - Have you tried to book a room for the solar eclipse, only to find that reservations are running $600 per night? Maybe all of the hotels in the city are already completely full. Perhaps you’re just going to wing it — throw a sleeping bag in the trunk and hit the road the night before. That’s
- [Guam hit by strongest ‘Super Typhoon’ in Decades](https://firstalerthurricane.com/guam-hit-by-strongest-super-typhoon-in-decades/) - According to the National Weather Service Guam, the storm had Category 4-level winds of about 140 miles per hour just before midnight local time on Wednesday, May 24 as it passed over Guam. Guam International Airport recorded sustained winds of 71 mph and a gust of 105 mph. The storm’s eye passed just north of the
- [First Alert Weather Tracker](https://firstalerthurricane.com/first-alert/) - Welcome to First Alert Weather Tracker hattiesburg bobby l chain municipal airport weather forecast Welcome to the First Alert Hurricane Tracker First Alert Hurricane Tracker provides Weather Forecasts, Updates, and Alerts for the United States including Severe Weather, Winter Weather, and our specialty, Tropical Weather. We run our site on Professionalism and Dedication and are
- [Tropical Weather Outlook for May 17, 2023](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-weather-outlook-for-may-17-2023/) - A stationary boundary has dissipated this morning and high pressure is building across the western subtropical Atlantic. A few isolated showers are observed from 20N to 27N between 60W and 66W. Winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, the gradient between high pressure near the
- [Flash Flood Watch for Parts of the Gulf States this Weekend, Expect Heavy Rain](https://firstalerthurricane.com/flash-flood-watch-for-parts-of-the-gulf-states-this-weekend-expect-heavy-rain/) - Tonight through Sunday... An upper level low pressure trough will be over Texas for the next few days, which will enhance the rain chances for our area. Some scattered showers and storms will be possible tonight, as a result. Southerly surface winds will help to enhance the moisture and warm air advection to the
- [Tropical Storm ELSA expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico around July 5th](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-elsa-expected-to-enter-the-gulf-of-mexico-around-july-5th/) - Elsa is being swept toward the Caribbean by a strong high pressure that is sprawled across the Atlantic. This is the same high that is spreading the plume of storm-killing dust over the ocean as well. But Tropical Storm ELSA started far enough south that it wasn’t engulfed by the plume and could pull
- [Gulf Coast Weekend forecast and a Look into the Tropics](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gulf-coast-weekend-forecast-and-a-look-into-the-tropics/) - Period begins with a very weak and unstable upper air pattern with a remnant trough that extends from the OHVLY south to LA. An upper ridge is closed off from the MId-Atlc to the NE Gulf of Mexico. The aforementioned trough, and notable associated deep layer moisture axis moves slowly SEWD into our region from
- [Expect a soggy weekend over the Gulf Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/expect-a-soggy-weekend-over-the-gulf-coast/) - An unsettled pattern will remain over the area throughout the forecast period. Bermuda high off the southeastern US coast along with a southwesterly flow aloft will keep the moisture content very high over the next few days with PW values remaining at or near 2 inches. A Trough extending from the northeastern states down to
- [Mississippi Weekend Weather Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/mississippi-weekend-weather-forecast/) - Today and tonight: A weak front remains stalled across the area this morning, delineating drier conditions with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s across north LA/AR/northwest MS from a more moist airmass with isolated showers, low clouds, and patchy fog extending from central LA through south and east MS. Through the day,
- [South Mississippi Weather Forecast June 1, 2021](https://firstalerthurricane.com/south-mississippi-weather-forecast-june-1-2021/) - SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WEATHER FORECAST: Today and Tonight: Today will mark an end to the nice cooler and drier weather we experienced this past holiday weekend, and the start of a more summerlike warm and wet pattern. A brief period of foggy conditions is possible in the Pine Belt early this morning as moisture begins returning.
- [June 1, 2021 Tropical Weather Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/june-1-2021-tropical-weather-update/) - Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Jun 1 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Today marks the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until November 30. Long-term
- [GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gale-watch-is-in-effect-for-the-mississippi-sound/) - A Gale Watch is in effect from 10 PM CDT Wednesday through 10 AM CDT Thursday for frequent wind gusts to 40kts over Mississippi Sound, Southern Mobile Bay, and offshore waters out to 60NM. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the rest of the Bays and Sounds from 7 PM CDT Wednesday
- [Christmas Day Climatology for the Pine Belt](https://firstalerthurricane.com/christmas-day-climatology-for-the-pine-belt/) - Hattiesburg/Pine Belt Area High Temperature Location Normal Warmest Years Coldest Years Hattiesburg 60.5°F 80°F (2015) 80°F (1955) 79°F (2016) 79°F (1974) 78°F (1987) 78°F (1982) 26°F (1983) 34°F (1989) 38°F (2004) 38°F (1990) 39°F (1998/1993) Low Temperature Location Normal Warmest Years Coldest Years Hattiesburg 38.6°F 74°F (2015) 68°F (1982) 65°F (1974) 64°F (1987) 61°F (1964)
- [Pine Belt Christmas Day Climatology](https://firstalerthurricane.com/pine-belt-christmas-day-climatology/) - Hattiesburg/Pine Belt Area High Temperature Location Normal Warmest Years Coldest Years Hattiesburg 60.5°F 80°F (2015) 80°F (1955) 79°F (2016) 79°F (1974) 78°F (1987) 78°F (1982) 26°F (1983) 34°F (1989) 38°F (2004) 38°F (1990) 39°F (1998/1993) Low Temperature Location Normal Warmest Years Coldest Years Hattiesburg 38.6°F 74°F (2015) 68°F (1982) 65°F (1974) 64°F (1987) 61°F (1964)
- [After Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, What Next for Karen?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/after-puerto-rico-and-the-virgin-islands-what-next-for-karen/) - The broad center of Tropical Storm Karen moved across the eastern Puerto Rico islands of Vieques and Culebra between 5 and 6 pm EDT Tuesday, when the storm had top sustained winds of 45 mph. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, Karen brought wind gusts as high as 43 mph to St. Thomas and 37 mph to St. Croix;
- [HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT](https://firstalerthurricane.com/humberto-continues-to-strengthen-and-expected-to-become-a-hurricane-tonight/) - BULLETIN Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 78.0W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO
- [Tropical Storm Conditions possible Along the Northern Gulf Coast this weekend.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-conditions-possible-along-the-northern-gulf-coast-this-weekend/) - The National Hurricane Center is tracking three different areas for potential tropical development. The closest to the United States is Invest 95L The model data Now that the NHC has classified Invest 95L, the model data can run on it. Keep in mind that because there is no closed low and organized area o flow
- [Labor Day Weekend Hurricanes Like Dorian Have Often Ruined the Holiday](https://firstalerthurricane.com/labor-day-weekend-hurricanes-like-dorian-have-often-ruined-the-holiday/) - Hurricane Dorian will make its approach to the Southeast coast on Labor Day weekend, which is right in the middle of what is historically the busiest portion of the Atlantic hurricane season and is also known for having the most intense U.S. hurricane landfall on record. No hurricanes have hit the U.S. on Labor Day weekend in
- [8/29/19 8AM Hurricane Dorian Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/8-29-19-8am-hurricane-dorian-update/) - Hurricane Dorian ate some dry air overnight and that limited the amount of intensification. As the storm continues to drift NW it will eventually find an area of reduced shear and higher humidity and intensification will continue. Current stats: SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…20.5N 66.6W ABOUT 150 MI…240 KM NNW OF SAN
- [Hurricane Dorian Likely to Approach Florida as a Major Hurricane](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-dorian-likely-to-approach-florida-as-a-major-hurricane/) - The large-scale pattern steering Dorian is fairly well defined until this weekend when the picture gets far more complex. Dorian’s current northwest motion will continue until around Friday. At that point, a combination of a strengthening Bermuda high to the north and a receding upper-level low to the south will bend Dorian’s track toward the
- [Tropical Storm Dorian Update 8 AM](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-dorian-update-8-am/) - BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019 ...DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.1N 52.1W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280
- [U.S., Mexico on alert for tropical development in the coming week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/u-s-mexico-on-alert-for-tropical-development-in-the-coming-week/) - While tropical storm formation has been scarce so far this tropical season, the area near Central America may become a breeding ground for tropical activity in the coming week. Over Central America, patches of heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to gather as a large slowly-spinning, non-tropical storm, called a gyre. The large gyre over
- [El Niño Fades: 2019 Hurricane Season Predicted to Be Active](https://firstalerthurricane.com/el-nino-fades-2019-hurricane-season-predicted-to-be-active/) - Hurricane forecasters have upped their initial predictions for the 2019 Hurricane Season after El Niño, which developed last Fall has faded. Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May). The likelihood of near-normal activity is now at
- [First Alert Tropical Update 08/12/2019](https://firstalerthurricane.com/first-alert-tropical-update-08-12-2019/) - TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE 08/12/2019 The seasonal forecasters are saying one thing, the tropics are doing just the opposite. Some of the latest seasonal outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State continue to show this hurricane season being above normal. Here we are coming up to the middle of August and Barry was the last storm to
- [Meteorologist Jason Scott says Tropical Storm Barry will Bring Major Flooding Problems to the Area!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/meteorologist-jason-scott-says-tropical-storm-barry-will-bring-major-flooding-problems-to-the-area/) - As of 6 a.m. Friday, Tropical Storm Barry had not strengthened further after slightly strengthening with winds of 50 mph Thursday night, although those winds are not at the center of circulation, which remains very broad. The pressure is the same and motion is nearly stationary; to the west at 3 mph. Dry air over the center
- [Ahead of July 4th weekend, 4 more Mississippi beaches close due to algae blooms](https://firstalerthurricane.com/ahead-of-july-4th-weekend-4-more-mississippi-beaches-close-due-to-algae-blooms/) - As green-blue algae swirls in the Mississippi Sound, twelve beaches across Hancock and Harrison County remain closed to the public. But despite the closures, people can be seen swimming and standing in the affected waters. Hancock County has taken a new step to increase awareness for locals and visitors by adopting a new flag system
- [Want to see a Category 4 Hurricane Barbara and total solar eclipse at the same time?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/want-to-see-a-category-4-hurricane-barbara-and-total-solar-eclipse-at-the-same-time/) - A total solar eclipse had to share the stage with a Category 4 hurricane today — and NOAA satellite captured it all. Hurricane Barbara is the second hurricane of the year in the eastern Pacific, where the 2019 season is off to an unusually slow start. Barbara had top winds of 140 mph on Tuesday
- [We are monitoring the tropics for possible next storm development](https://firstalerthurricane.com/we-are-monitoring-the-tropics-for-possible-next-storm-development/) - The southern Gulf of Mexico may serve as the breeding ground for another tropical storm to form near June 1, the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. On the heels of short-lived Subtropical Storm Andrea, there are indications that another storm may take shape at the end of May or start of June. Instead of
- [Hurricane Preparedness Week, May 5-11, 2019](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-preparedness-week-may-5-11-2019/) - Please help the NWS spread the word about Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 5-11, 2019) on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation. Hurricane Preparedness Week Kick-Off Facebook It only takes one storm to change your life and community. Tropical cyclones are among nature’s
- [2019 Hurricane Season Forecasts calls for slightly above normal](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2019-hurricane-season-forecasts-calls-for-slightly-above-normal/) - While the 2018 hurricane season was a lively one with storms that slammed the Carolinas and the Florida Panhandle, two early forecasts for this year call for fewer storms — good news for New Jersey and East Coast residents and beachgoers. The two early looks at the season — from the weather researchers at Colorado
- [Special Tropical Weather Outlook May 1, 2019](https://firstalerthurricane.com/special-tropical-weather-outlook-may-1-2019/) - A trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Little development is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves generally northwestward toward the Florida Peninsula. Subsequently, some slow development is possible as the disturbance turns northeastward and moves over the western Atlantic. Regardless
- [Special Tropical Weather Outlook April 30, 2019](https://firstalerthurricane.com/special-tropical-weather-outlook-april-30-2019/) - Special Outlook: The surface trough located southeast of the Bahamas has become better defined since yesterday. Conditions remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation, they will become slightly favorable by Friday. Regardless, enhanced rainfall is possible this weekend along the Florida peninsula. There is a low chance of this system forming into a subtropical storm. The
- [Mississippi Weather Sunny but Warmer this week.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/mississippi-weather-sunny-but-warmer-this-week/)
- [AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/accuweathers-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/) - The tropical track density map above was created by analyzing analog years, which are past years that have weather patterns similar to current and projected weather patterns. Analog years are often used to predict future trends and impacts during a hurricane season. They can be based solely on the El Niño—Southern Oscillation or on a
- [testing](https://firstalerthurricane.com/testing/)
- [Welcome to the NEW First Alert Hurricane Gulf Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/welcome-to-the-new-first-alert-hurricane-gulf-coast/) - First Alert Hurricane Gulf Coast provides Weather Forecasts, Updates, and Alerts for the Gulf States including Severe Weather, Winter Weather, and our specialty, Tropical Weather. We run our site on Professionalism and Dedication and are well known for our custom weather graphics and descriptive up-to-the-minute forecasts. Providing accurate, no hype weather information to the public as per of
- [Hurricane Season Has Started Early Four Years in a Row. Is That Unusual?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/75-2/) - Hurricane Season Skewing Early? At a Glance The Atlantic hurricane season officially kicks off June 1. That doesn't mean tropical storms or hurricanes can't form before then. At least one named storm has formed before hurricane season each of the past four years. The Atlantic hurricane season technically runs from June through November, but there's "nothing
- [Federal Hurricane Awareness Tour Gets Cities Ready for 2019 Cyclone Season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/federal-hurricane-awareness-tour-gets-cities-ready-for-2019-cyclone-season/) - After last year’s blockbuster hurricane disasters, NOAA is sending their Hurricane Hunters aircraft fleet on tour to five cities ahead of the 2019 hurricane season to increase hurricane awareness. n the air and on the ground, officials will do all they can this spring to prepare citizens for the upcoming season of tropical cyclones by
- [2019 Hurricane season outlook: Slightly below-normal Atlantic activity](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2019-hurricane-season-outlook-slightly-below-normal-atlantic-activity/) - Slightly below normal activity anticipated HOUSTON - Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a renowned meteorologist and hurricane expert from Colorado State University, issued his annual early-spring Atlantic hurricane season outlook Thursday. He predicts slightly below-normal activity for 2019. Klotzbach predicts 13 named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, which is very close to a normal season. He believes that the
- [Gulf Coast may be exception of average 2019 hurricane season, NC State forecasts](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gulf-coast-may-be-exception-of-average-2019-hurricane-season-nc-state-forecasts/) - The U.S. east coast is expected to see an about average level of storm activity during the coming 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, but the Gulf of Mexico could differ, with above average activity forecast by the team at North Carolina State University. The North Carolina State University forecasters are among the group we track here on
- [What is virga? There’s rain on radar, but it’s not raining!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/what-is-virga-theres-rain-on-radar-but-its-not-raining/) - The fluid dynamics associated with atmospheric disturbances cause the downstream air (ahead of the disturbance, before it arrives at a location) to rise, and the upstream air (behind the disturbance, i.e., after the disturbance has passed) to sink. If there is sufficient moisture in the area of rising air, clouds and precipitation may form. Necessary
- [Mississippi are you Prepared for the Next TORNADO? Watches vs Warnings](https://firstalerthurricane.com/mississippi-are-you-prepared-for-the-next-tornado-watches-vs-warnings/) - The peak time for severe weather outbreaks in the United States is between February and October; however, severe weather can occur at any time of the year. In an effort to warn citizens of impending rough weather, various watches and/or warnings are issued. Knowing the difference between the two is very important and can help
- [What are Straight-Line Winds?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/what-are-straight-line-winds/) - Each severe weather season, tornadoes, destructive hail, and straight-line winds wreak havoc across the U.S. All are dangerous, but of these, one is more likely to impact you than any other. This distinction belongs to straight-line winds. Straight-line winds are damaging winds (typically 60mph or greater) that travel in a uniform direction as they propagate
- [The Future of Snowstorms....](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-future-of-snowstorms/) - Over the next century as global temperatures continue to trend warmer, what do these warmer temperatures entail for future snowfall in the decades to come? According to recent computer modeling from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the answer is more complex than simply less snowfall. Looking at the Northeastern United States, in particular, while the
- [Polar vortex to blast midwestern, northeastern US with extreme cold to end January](https://firstalerthurricane.com/polar-vortex-to-blast-midwestern-northeastern-us-with-extreme-cold-to-end-january/) - The colder air plunging back into midwestern and northeastern United States through Saturday will pale in comparison to the brutal cold expected to end January as the polar vortex plunges south. Through late next week, it will be a very cold stretch and high energy draw from the Plains to the East Coast. While the current blast
- [Offshore Wind Farms: Allaying Concerns About Hurricanes and About Fishing](https://firstalerthurricane.com/offshore-wind-farms-allaying-concerns-about-hurricanes-and-about-fishing/) - America’s only offshore wind farm is the 30-megawatt Block Island Wind Farm, a set of five 600-foot tall wind turbines located about four miles southeast of Block Island, Rhode Island. Construction began in May 2015 and the farm began producing power in December 2016, allowing the island to draw power from another source besides their
- [Ever Wanted to know how to Read Skew-T Charts?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/ever-wanted-to-know-how-to-read-skew-t-charts/) - If you haven’t seen a Skew-T chart before, to say they can look a little intimidating is a huge understatement. But with a little practice, you can become a Skew-T master and open up new doors to learn about a variety of meteorological subjects. Skew-T charts are incredibly useful for quickly and accurately viewing the
- [Weather this weekend in the Pine Belt and Gulf Coast not Bad!!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/weather-this-weekend-in-the-pine-belt-and-gulf-coast-not-bad/) - The northwest flow pattern is expected to persist through the weekend, and the models are in decent agreement that another shortwave trough will push through the region on Saturday. In advance of this trough, high pressure will continue to dominate on Friday with clear skies and slightly below normal temperatures. Saturday night should continue to
- [Severe Weather for Parts Mississippi and Not as Cold for the Pine Belt](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-weather-for-parts-mississippi-and-not-as-cold-for-the-pine-belt/) - A robust and quick moving storm system will track from the Red River Valley Friday night into the Midsouth by Saturday morning, bringing a cold front across the area early in the day. Showers will begin to increase Friday evening, with greater rain chances and a few storms possible overnight. With a potent low-level jet
- [Severe Weather and Bitter COLD Temps for the Pine Belt this Weekend...](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-weather-and-bitter-cold-temps-for-the-pine-belt-this-weekend/) - The main focus for this portion of the forecast period is on late Friday night through Saturday when a significant frontal system is expected to plow through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Warmth and moisture will gradually increase ahead of the arrival of this system with the "warm sector" possessing enough instability to bring at least
- [Hello world!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hello-world/) - Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start writing!
- [The Pine Belt can expect 1" to 3" of Rain on Thursday: Ending Friday Sunny and Cooler](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-pine-belt-can-expect-1-to-3-of-rain-on-thursday-ending-friday-sunny-and-cooler/) - Expect the rainfall to let up a little bit after midnight tonight and through the morning hours on Thursday as the frontal forcing relaxes, though there will still be some light rain around. As a cutoff low over the Southwest US ejects across the southern Plains overnight tonight and into the Southeast region tomorrow, another
- [More Flooding Rains for the Pine Belt but much Sunny and Cooler for the Weekend](https://firstalerthurricane.com/1151-2more-flooding-rains-for-the-pine-belt-but-much-sunny-and-cooler-for-the-weekend/) - Wet weather will continue into Thursday as a TX Panhandle upper low tracks eastward toward the area. Ahead of this feature, a departing upper jet max over the Ohio Valley and an approaching upper jet max along the NW Gulf Coast will couple to promote strong large-scale upper lift over the Lower MS Valley. This
- [The Pine Belt New Year Weather Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-pine-belt-new-year-weather-forecast/) - As a shortwave lifts from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes today, its developing surface low should track from Arkansas toward Indiana. This will bring a cold front through Pine Belt, with a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms as the front moves through. Instability is currently increasing in the developing warm sector. Latest
- [After a Wet Period;The Pine Belt will enjoy Cooler and Dryer  end of the week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/after-a-wet-periodthe-pine-belt-will-enjoy-cooler-and-dryer-end-of-the-week/) - As a shortwave lifts from the Southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Monday, an attendant surface low should track from across eastern Arkansas toward Indiana during the daytime. Due to the proximity of the surface low and stronger pressure gradient, expect the potential for gusts around 25-30 mph during the morning and early afternoon
- [South Mississippi Flooding Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/south-mississippi-flooding-update/) - A swath of rain and a couple of embedded thunderstorms will continue to push north across the area into this evening. Much of the rainfall amounts with this will be on the lighter side but some heavier downpours will be possible. The inherited limited risk for flash flooding in the Pine Belt will be kept
- [Train Of Strong Storms To Continue Impacting The Pacific Northwest This Week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/train-of-strong-storms-to-continue-impacting-the-pacific-northwest-this-week/) - The first in a series of strong Pacific storms is impacting parts of the Pacific Northwest this evening, and several more are set to bring similar impacts through the coming week. For each system, the coastline will see heavy rain and strong winds, with the higher terrain of the Cascades seeing precip fall in the
- [Our Global Warming Emergency](https://firstalerthurricane.com/our-global-warming-emergency/) - Thirty plus years of global warming reduction failure In spite of 30 years of warnings by credible scientists and the work of the environmental movement, plus a preponderance of collaborating scientific evidence, as well as numerous conferences (21 to date,) and previous treaties, the carbon dioxide and methane pollution of the atmosphere has not stopped,
- [High Impact Winter Storm Likely From The Southern Plains To The Southern Appalachians](https://firstalerthurricane.com/high-impact-winter-storm-likely-from-the-southern-plains-to-the-southern-appalachians/) - Here’s a look at our main system currently as it moves SE just off of Los Angeles. The storm has been quite impactful in California, causing heavy rain and mudslides in some of the burn scars near the LA area. Rains will taper off in California as the system shifts east tonight. Meanwhile, rain and snow will
- [Potential Winter Storm To Usher In Warmer Pattern For East Coast Mid Month](https://firstalerthurricane.com/potential-winter-storm-to-usher-in-warmer-pattern-for-east-coast-mid-month/) - I usually focus on near-term weather threats here, but today with generally quiet weather across the US I want to look a little farther out into the medium-long range to show off some of the tools we have to forecast on the subseasonal timescale. About a week from now, we’ll be watching a potential winter
- [An Active and Destructive 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Ends](https://firstalerthurricane.com/an-active-and-destructive-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-ends/) - Despite pre-season predictions of an average to below-average year, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was above average by most measures, with two U.S. hurricanes—Florence and Michael—causing unusually high death tolls and catastrophic damage in excess of $10 billion each. The 2018 tally of activity in the Atlantic was 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone
- [Your Pine Belt Severe Weather Update:](https://firstalerthurricane.com/your-pine-belt-severe-weather-update/) - The main concern will continue to be the potential for severe weather later tonight. There remain a few questions as to how things will develop over the next 12-18 hours. While the system moving into the region is very robust and should likely bring severe weather to our area, much of the hi-res guidance indicates
- [Severe Weather For Mississippi this Weekend than COLD Weather returns later in the week next week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-weather-for-mississippi-this-weekend-than-cold-weather-returns-later-in-the-week-next-week/) - An active weather pattern will take shape for the end of the week into early next week. Primary concerns for the Pine Belt in Mississippi are for the threat for severe weather from late Friday through Friday night, and then perhaps a new round of storms/heavy rainfall affecting mainly southern portions of the forecast area
- [Here's the Pine Belt Thanksgiving Weekend Weather Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/heres-the-pine-belt-thanksgiving-weekend-weather-outlook/) - Expect a nice, dry & cooler than normal pattern over the next day as surface & mid-level ridge axis build over the region. Tonight, expect the center of the mid-level ridge to center over Texas & surface ridge of ~1030mb high pressure to center over the ArkLaTex, Mid-South & northern Mississippi. This will help the
- [Hurricane Michael Intensifies to Category 2; May Be Florida Panhandle's Strongest Landfall in 13 Years Wednesday](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-michael-intensifies-to-category-2-may-be-florida-panhandles-strongest-landfall-in-13-years-wednesday/) - Michael is currently centered about 360 miles south of Panama City, Florida, and is moving north. (LATEST NEWS: Evacuations Ordered Along Florida Coast) A storm surge warning is in effect from the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida to Anclote River, Florida. This means life-threatening storm surge inundation is a danger in the warning area within 36 hours. Storm surge
- [Michael Gains Steam in SE Gulf; Cat 3 Landfall Likely on Gulf Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/michael-gains-steam-in-se-gulf-cat-3-landfall-likely-on-gulf-coast/) - Above: Infrared image of Hurricane Michael as of 0422Z (12:22 am EDT) Tuesday, October 9, 2018. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch. Hurricane Michael was gathering strength on Monday night as it entered the southeast Gulf of Mexico, en route to an expected Wednesday landfall on the northeast Gulf Coast. On a Monday night mission into Michael,
- [Powerful Hurricane Michael Moving North Through The Gulf Of Mexico](https://firstalerthurricane.com/powerful-hurricane-michael-moving-north-through-the-gulf-of-mexico/) - 7:45 PM EDT Monday 10/8: Satellite imagery this evening shows Michael continuing to develop, while also struggling with some dry air. The CDO present over the system’s center earlier this evening has eroded, with dry air working into the system’s southern side. However, intense “hot towers” continue to wrap around the center, as upper level
- [Tropical Storm Michael and Invest AL-92 Advisories](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-michael-and-invest-al-92-advisories/) - BULLETIN Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY... ...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE
- [Michael could be a powerful Gulf of Mexico Hurricane](https://firstalerthurricane.com/michael-could-be-a-powerful-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane-2/) - Overnight weather models (GFS, ECMWF/EPS, UKMET) all indicated a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The next name on the list is Michael. The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 14L and does have a 70-knot Category 1 hurricane making landfall (11 AM Sunday discussion) along the Florida Gulf
- [Michael could be a powerful Gulf of Mexico Hurricane](https://firstalerthurricane.com/michael-could-be-a-powerful-gulf-of-mexico-hurricane/) - Overnight weather models (GFS, ECMWF/EPS, UKMET) all indicated a powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico this week. The next name on the list is Michael. The National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 14L and does have a 70-knot Category 1 hurricane making landfall (11 AM Sunday discussion) along the Florida Gulf
- [Tropical Storm Leslie and Tropics Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-leslie-and-tropics-outlook/) - Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean. 1. Surface observations and satellite data indicate that an area of low
- [Active Pattern To Develop Across The US This Weekend](https://firstalerthurricane.com/active-pattern-to-develop-across-the-us-this-weekend/) - Hello everyone! A very active pattern is set to develop across the US this weekend as tropical cyclones across the Pacific disrupt the Northern Hemisphere’s jet stream. While the pattern may be originating over distant seas, the effects will be prominent from coast to coast here in North America. Heavy snow will fall in the
- [The new NOAA Winter Weather Forecast 2018-2019 is here.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-new-noaa-winter-weather-forecast-2018-2019-is-here/) - Summer may still be in full swing, but that doesn’t mean that colder weather isn’t on the way. The meteorologists at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) recently released their early winter weather predictions for the coming 2018-2019 season, and while the early call isn’t the news we were hoping for, you can be sure
- [Tropical Weather Outlook 9/22/2018 @ 11 PM](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-weather-outlook-9-22-2018-11-pm/) - BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112018 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... ...FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION LOCATION...13.1N 53.4W ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
- [Winter 18/19 Long-Range Weather Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/winter-18-19-long-range-weather-forecast/) - Long-range ski forecast for North American ski resorts, 2018/2019. Copyright: Meteorologist Chris Tomer What will the snow be like this ski season? When it comes to the long-range weather forecast for winter 2018/2019, we are currently on "El Niño Watch." The consensus of model data predicts a 70 percent chance of an El Niño developing for
- [Florence On Final Approach To The North Carolina Coast Today](https://firstalerthurricane.com/florence-on-final-approach-to-the-north-carolina-coast-today/) - by Jack Sillin/ 09/13/2018/ Hello everyone! Hurricane Florence is on final approach to North Carolina today. By the time tonight arrives, the storm will be just a few miles offshore, likely preparing to make landfall. As of this morning, the first outer bands of the storm are arriving on the Outer Banks, with conditions set to quickly
- [Major Hurricane Florence, Tropical Storm Isaac, and Invest 95-L 8:00pm advisory](https://firstalerthurricane.com/major-hurricane-florence-tropical-storm-isaac-and-invest-95-l-800pm-advisory/) - BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 54A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 800 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 ...FLORENCE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC... INFORMATION --LOCATION...31.5N 73.2W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH
- [Major Hurricane Florence Set To Arrive In North Carolina Tomorrow, Longer Term Track Remains Uncertain](https://firstalerthurricane.com/major-hurricane-florence-set-to-arrive-in-north-carolina-tomorrow-longer-term-track-remains-uncertain/) - by Jack Sillin/ 09/12/2018/ Hello everyone! Major Hurricane Florence is churning towards the coastline this morning as a category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. A better understanding of the upper level pattern has opened up a new idea forecast-wise for Florence, which is what this post will primarily be discussing. Note that these changes to the
- [Florence Bearing Down On The Carolina Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/florence-bearing-down-on-the-carolina-coast/) - Hello everyone! Florence has rapidly intensified over the past couple days, just as forecast. The storm remains on track to slam into the Carolina coast as a powerful Category 3 or 4 hurricane on Thursday night or Friday morning. Because of increased confidence in track, this post will discuss impacts more than large scale steering/intensity
- [Tropical Weather Update Sept 9, 2018](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-weather-update-sept-9-2018/) - BULLETIN Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS FLORENCE STRENGTHENING... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---LOCATION...24.4N 57.0W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM NE OF
- [NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)](https://firstalerthurricane.com/nhc-atlantic-tropical-weather-discussion-corrected/) - 969 AXNT20 KNHC 090230 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1030 PM EDT Sat Sep 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information
- [Florence Becoming More Of A Threat To The Southeastern US](https://firstalerthurricane.com/florence-becoming-more-of-a-threat-to-the-southeastern-us/) - Hello everyone! Florence remains a tropical storm this afternoon as it moves west though the Central Atlantic. The system has been struggling with dry air and wind shear over the past couple days, but is showing signs of improvement on satellite imagery today. The forecast for Florence remains similar to the thoughts presented in yesterday’s update.
- [Hurricane Florence: Long Range East Coast Threat?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-florence-long-range-east-coast-threat/) - Hello everyone! With Tropical Storm Gordon having made landfall and moved inland, our focus will now shift to the next storm in the Atlantic, Hurricane Florence. Florence is currently a Category three hurricane, with winds of 115 mph as of the 8 AM EDT advisory. The storm is moving NW this morning but is expected
- [Tropical Storm Gordon: A Little Stronger, Further East: Three Scenarios for the Central Gulf Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-storm-gordon-a-little-stronger-further-east-three-scenarios-for-the-central-gulf-coast/) - The center of Tropical Storm Gordon is emerging from a brief traversal of the southern tip of Florida. It is south of Everglades right now and will continue to pass south of Naples as it heads out into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It is headed WNW at 16 mph at this time. Top winds
- [Advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 2 and Tropical Storm Florence](https://firstalerthurricane.com/advisory-for-potential-tropical-cyclone-seven-advisory-number-2-and-tropical-storm-florence/) - BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC INFORMATION -- LOCATION...23.4N 78.7W ABOUT
- [Tropical Wave To Move Into The Gulf Of Mexico This Week, Development Possible](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-wave-to-move-into-the-gulf-of-mexico-this-week-development-possible/) - by Jack Sillin/ 09/01/2018/ Hello everyone! A few days ago, I discussed the state of the tropical Atlantic, and why it was likely to become more active in the days and weeks to come. Sure enough, that’s exactly what we’re seeing today, with two systems to watch in the Atlantic basin. The more organized of the two systems,
- [[September 1st] Tropical Wave May Develop in Gulf of Mexico Next Week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/september-1st-tropical-wave-may-develop-in-gulf-of-mexico-next-week/)
- [Tropical Update: Why Has It Been So Quiet In The Atlantic This Month?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-update-why-has-it-been-so-quiet-in-the-atlantic-this-month/) - Today’s update will come in two parts, this being part one, focusing on the tropical Atlantic. The season has gotten off to a slow start, but we’re only just entering climatological peak season. The only two hurricanes of the season so far both occurred in July, with a near total lack of activity during the
- [Coastal Change Hazards: Hurricanes and Extreme Storms](https://firstalerthurricane.com/coastal-change-hazards-hurricanes-and-extreme-storms/) - Hurricane Katrina Before and After Photo Comparisons: Mainland Mississippi The mainland shoreline of Mississippi, located in the right-front quadrant of Hurricane Katrina, experienced one of the greatest storm surges in U.S. history. Most of this coastline stretching from Waveland through Pascagoula suffered extensive damage up to several kilometers inland from the coast. The photo pairs
- [One Year after Hurricane Katrina's Surge](https://firstalerthurricane.com/one-year-after-hurricane-katrinas-surge/) - We're traveling the coastline destroyed by Hurricane Katrina's record storm surge. This is something that has never been shown on the news or talked about, either in the overall, or in detail. What you'll be seeing here is what people on the Gulf Coast have been calling the “Invisible Coastline” for almost a year now.
- [Rebuilding New Orleans: Detailing a New Vernacular](https://firstalerthurricane.com/rebuilding-new-orleans-detailing-a-new-vernacular/) - 13 years ago this month, Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. During the years following the levee failures, the city witnessed a boom in architectural experimentation, as small, independent developers joined the recovery efforts. A leader in this effort was Make It Right (MIR), a charitable organization founded by actor Brad Pitt in 2007. The organization challenged architects
- [NOAA Makes Winter Weather Forecast for 2018-2019 Season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/noaa-makes-winter-weather-forecast-for-2018-2019-season/) - The new NOAA Winter Weather Forecast 2018-2019 is here. Summer may still be in full swing, but that doesn’t mean that colder weather isn’t on the way. The meteorologists at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) recently released their early winter weather predictions for the coming 2018-2019 season, and while the early call isn’t the
- [Chris moving Away from US – Will Impact Newfoundland Thursday and Early Friday](https://firstalerthurricane.com/chris-moving-away-from-us-will-impact-newfoundland-thursday-and-early-friday/) - Tropical Storm Chris is beginning to move northeastward this morning, away from the United States. Since Chris sat in the same spot for a couple days, the water beneath the storm cooled substantially on Monday, preventing Chris from intensifying more quickly. Now that the storm is moving, water beneath it will warm some today, and
- [Chris Becomes a Hurricane East of the Carolinas](https://firstalerthurricane.com/chris-becomes-a-hurricane-east-of-the-carolinas/) - Above: Visible satellite image of Chris as of 20Z (4 pm EDT) Tuesday, July 10, 2018. Image credit: RAMMB / CIRA @ CSU. Tropical Storm Chris became the second hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic season at 5 pm EDT Tuesday afternoon. Located about 200 miles east-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, Chris was packing top sustained winds
- [Beryl Significantly Weaker as We Expected](https://firstalerthurricane.com/beryl-significantly-weaker-as-we-expected/) - Above: Visible satellite image of Beryl from 9 am EDT Saturday, July 7, 2018. Beryl’s circulation center was exposed to view, with just one clump of heavy thunderstorms on the southeast side of the center--the classic appearance of a storm undergoing wind shear. Tiny Hurricane Beryl suffered a significant disruption to its core on Saturday morning,
- [Big Drop in CSU’s Atlantic Hurricane Outlook; Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific](https://firstalerthurricane.com/big-drop-in-csus-atlantic-hurricane-outlook-quiet-atlantic-active-pacific/) - Above: Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) analyzed at 2 am EDT Tuesday, July 3, 2018, across the North Atlantic, as compared to the 1981-2010 average SST for this time of year, in degrees C (see scale at right). SSTs across most of the tropical Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa were running cooler than average, while
- [East Pacific Overachieving, Atlantic and Northwest Pacific Underwhelming](https://firstalerthurricane.com/east-pacific-overachieving-atlantic-and-northwest-pacific-underwhelming/) - Above: Four systems in various stages of potential development were highlighted in the tropical weather outlook issued by the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT Monday, June 25, 2018. Image credit: NHC. We’re still in the early days of 2018 for tropical cyclone formation across the Northern Hemisphere, but so far the balance of power has
- [Meteorologists United on Climate Change](https://firstalerthurricane.com/meteorologists-united-on-climate-change/) - Above: West Palm Beach broadcast meteorologist Jeff Berardelli (CBS12) with the warming-stripes graphic being used in Thursday’s Meteorologists United on Climate Change campaign. Image credit: Courtesy Jeff Berardelli. Close to 100 broadcast meteorologists will don blue and red stripes for their on-air segments Thursday as part of an international effort to raise awareness of the reality
- [Five Years after El Reno, “The Man Who Caught the Storm” Is a Stunner](https://firstalerthurricane.com/five-years-after-el-reno-the-man-who-caught-the-storm-is-a-stunner/) - Above: In this file photo from May 26, 2006, in Ames, Iowa, Tim Samaras shows the probes he was using when trying to collect data from a tornado. Image credit: AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall. The story of the late tornado researcher Tim Samaras practically writes itself. Untrained in university science, but gifted with an engineer’s brain and
- [NOAA Predicts a Near-Normal or Above-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season; Update on 90L](https://firstalerthurricane.com/noaa-predicts-a-near-normal-or-above-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season-update-on-90l/) - Above: The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2017, Hurricane Irma, as seen by the MODIS instrument on September 5, 2017. At the time, Irma was at peak strength, a Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds. Irma was downgraded slightly in the post-season report by the National Hurricane Center, which judged that the peak sustained 1-minute winds of the
- [Tropical Weather Update 10 AM  5/23/2018](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-weather-update-10-am-5-23-2018/) - The National Hurricane Center currently has a 60 percent chance that the low will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone over the central or eastern Gulf over the next 5 days. In general, for the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf Coast, we can expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue, especially during the afternoon
- [Special Tropical Weather Outlook 05/21/2018](https://firstalerthurricane.com/special-tropical-weather-outlook-05-21-2018/) - Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 830 AM EDT Mon May 21, 2018, For the North Atlantic...The Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba and the Florida peninsula are associated with the interaction of a large upper-level low with
- [Hurricane season may be even worse in 2018 after a harrowing 2017](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-season-may-be-even-worse-in-2018-after-a-harrowing-2017/) - The peak season for Atlantic storms, which officially starts on 1 June, is set to spur as many as 18 named storms, with up to five of them developing into major hurricanes, according to separate forecasts from North Carolina State University and Colorado State University. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will soon provide its own 2018 hurricane
- [Rare Tropical Storm in Gulf of Aden May Affect Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti](https://firstalerthurricane.com/rare-tropical-storm-in-gulf-of-aden-may-affect-yemen-somalia-djibouti/) - Above: Infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone 1A (center) and related thunderstorm activity (lower right). Image credit: RAMMB-CIRA/CSU. Tropical Cyclone 1A, which developed late Wednesday between Yemen and Somalia, could become one of the first tropical storms on record to cross the entire Gulf of Aden—perhaps affecting even the tiny nation of Djibouti, where tropical cyclones are
- [Gulf of Mexico Disturbance Bringing Heavy Rains to Florida, and May Develop](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gulf-of-mexico-disturbance-bringing-heavy-rains-to-florida-and-may-develop/) - Above: GOES-East satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico disturbance, taken at 6:30 pm EDT May 13, 2018. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but we could see a tropical or subtropical depression form in the Gulf of Mexico this week, off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A broad area
- [An upper level low over the Gulf of Mexico is worth watching early in the week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/an-upper-level-low-over-the-gulf-of-mexico-is-worth-watching-early-in-the-week/) - The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts on June 1, but we could see a tropical or subtropical depression form in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. An upper-level trough of low pressure currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will move east and become a closed-off upper-level low-pressure
- [La Niña is Gone; Severe Weather in Late-Spring Mode](https://firstalerthurricane.com/la-nina-is-gone-severe-weather-in-late-spring-mode/) - Above: Near-neutral conditions across the tropical Pacific were evident in this depiction of seasonally adjusted sea-surface heights for April 24, 2018, as measured by a radar-based altimeter aboard NASA's Jason-3 satellite. During El Niño, the warmer upper-ocean conditions across the eastern equatorial Pacific lead to higher sea-surface heights and a characteristic large belt of bright red.
- [A severe weather regime that looks more like June than May](https://firstalerthurricane.com/a-severe-weather-regime-that-looks-more-like-june-than-may/) - Weak upper-level flow and warm temperatures at the surface and aloft will rule the U.S. roost over the next few days, leading to patterns of severe weather more akin to those that prevail in late spring and early summer. Scattered clusters of high wind, large hail, and heavy rain can be expected, but the tornado
- [2018 Hurricane Awareness Tour Coming to Baton Rouge, LA!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2018-hurricane-awareness-tour-coming-to-baton-rouge-la/) - Ever been fascinated by hurricanes or wondered how in the world people fly safely into them? Have a passion for flying and love viewing various aircraft? Check out this 2-minute video about what it is like to be a Hurricane Hunter then mark your calendar for the 2018 Hurricane Awareness Tour in Baton Rouge on May 9th!
- [Hurricane Preparedness Week (May 6-12, 2018) is your time to prepare](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-preparedness-week-may-6-12-2018-is-your-time-to-prepare/) - Find out today what types of wind and water hazards could happen where you live, and then start preparing now for how to handle them. Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem. Their impacts can be felt hundreds of miles inland, and significant impacts can occur without it being a major hurricane. Hurricane Preparedness Week
- [NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion](https://firstalerthurricane.com/nhc-atlantic-tropical-weather-discussion/) - 000 AXNT20 KNHC 271156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is
- [The Cool Weather Hangs On into May in the South!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/cool-weather-hangs-may-south/) - The month has averaged in the first 3 weeks well below normal at levels not observed in some places in the record. See how persistent the cold was for the first 19 days of the month in Bismarck. The monthly departure even after a handful of above normal days is -11.1F. As we transition to
- [The Southeast is shaping up for above Avg Rainfall this Summer.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/southeast-shaping-avg-rainfall-summer/) - The southeast has been dry the last 60 days in a typical La Nina pattern where the rains stay northwest. That is changing. A few waves of showers have swept through the last 10 days. This one today is impressive. Strong fronts and rains this time of year come with a price beyond localized flodding
- [Significant Severe Weather Event Today Including Possible Strong Tornadoes South Mississippi](https://firstalerthurricane.com/significant-severe-weather-event-today-including-possible-strong-tornadoes-south-mississippi/) - The deep mid level closed low over the central Plains will be slowto push east and into the upper MS Valley by this evening and as this occurs the trough will begin to pivot taking on a neutral andeventually a negative tilt. The cold front which is currently slowly moving into the Lower MS Valley
- [Overcome Your Fear of Tornadoes, Severe Storms, and Hurricanes](https://firstalerthurricane.com/overcome-fear-tornadoes-severe-storms-hurricanes/) - Are you afraid of severe thunderstorms such as tornadoes and hurricanes? Do you get nervous every time the weatherman forecasts severe weather? Does the idea of a tornado warning (or dark suspicious clouds) make your stomach cramp with fear, and send you to a panic to the basement or closet? Is the panic so severe,
- [Get Your FREE Mobile Weather Alerts APP TODAY!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/get-free-mobile-weather-alerts-app-today/) - Get a powerful yet easy-to-use weather station right on your device with Weather Radar & Alerts. Real-time animated weather radar images on a highly interactive map enhanced with severe weather warnings provide accurate weather forecast and don’t let bad weather take you by surprise. The app reflects the real-time weather conditions and provides you
- [Why are so many people turning Away Local News](https://firstalerthurricane.com/many-people-turning-away-local-news/) - Executive Summary In this report, we analyze what is happening to television news. We map recent changes in traditional television viewing, the rise of online video, and a range of examples of how different organizations are working with new forms of television-like news developed for a digital environment. We show how recent years have seen
- [Chief Meteorologist Alan Sealls Declared "Best Weatherman Ever"](https://firstalerthurricane.com/chief-meteorologist-alan-sealls-declared-best-weatherman-ever/) - An Alabama meteorologist has been honored by the internet for his helpful, educational forecasts on hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. It all started when a Reddit user posted a forecast from Alan Sealls, the chief meteorologist from WFKG, a CBS-affiliated station in Mobile, Alabama. The post by Stellarnan7, titled “Best weatherman ever, very articulate and educational”,
- [Educational Material - Storm Spotter Resources](https://firstalerthurricane.com/educational-material-storm-spotter-resources/) - Spotter Training Materials It is important to note that reviewing the information and slides contained on this web page is NOT considered a substitute to actually attending a spotter training course. This web page is intended to be a supplement to the spotter training courses conducted by the NWS Norman every year. These typically occur in January
- [A look the History of tornadoes by their EF Scale Rankings](https://firstalerthurricane.com/look-history-tornadoes-ef-scale-rankings/) - The modern tornado record began in 1950. It tells many stories. While seasonal tornado information is highly incomplete across the early part of the period, we are now approaching 70 years worth of detailed information. There are over 60,000 tornadoes cataloged in the database. The country averages somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,200 twisters each year, although
- [Spring 2018 seasonal tornado outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/spring-2018-seasonal-tornado-outlook/) - The United States is running behind schedule in the tornado numbers department this year. Will the quiet trend we have seen thus far continue as we head into April, and May? We might see a few strong Thunderstorms towards the end of this week but nothing too severe. (Storm Prediction Center) Looking out into
- [Meteorologist Rick Smith Overcame Severe Weather Anxiety](https://firstalerthurricane.com/meteorologist-rick-smith-overcame-severe-weather-anxiety/) - Meteorologist Rick Smith can remember he’s been fascinated by weather. His wife actually found a little weather forecast he did in first grade; it’s framed in Rick’s office at the National Weather Service’s Norman Forecast Office. So, yes, Rick’s always been into weather. For instance, when “The Wizard of Oz” used to come on TV once
- [Severe Storms: How to Reduce Your Anxiety](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-storms-reduce-anxiety/) - Anticipating the arrival of a hurricane, tornado, blizzard, or any severe storm strikes fear and anxiety in the people in its path for good reason. Natural disasters disrupt lives in significant ways, including creating physical and mental health problems and major economic challenges. And the never-ending news about a storm’s arrival may increase your anxiety,
- [Southeast U.S. Weather Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/southeast-u-s-weather-update/) - The astronomical winter ended a bit above normal thanks to two extra weeks of warmth in February in the southeast. The last 30 days were colder east. The 90 days were drier in the far southeast, especially Florida. The EC op run has a slow-moving storm that threatens the first major severe weather outbreak of
- [Weather Channel Pioneers](https://firstalerthurricane.com/weather-channel-pioneers/) - Yahoo reported yesterday "Byron Allen continues to expand his Entertainment Studios media holdings with the purchase of The Weather Channel basic cable TV network. Through his company Allen Media, Allen has acquired the Weather Group, parent company of The Weather Channel TV network and Local Now streaming service, from The Blackstone Group, Bain Capital and
- [2018 Summer Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2018-summer-outlook/) - February 28, 2018 Fast starting very warm summer for much of U.S. Centered in the Plains. Early ending of Summer possible though (opposite of last year) Long-standing analogs from last year have 2006 and 1951 now leading the way. Weak El Niño may try to develop. Very little cool anywhere in the nation. Hurricane preliminary
- [2018 Hurricane Season Preliminary Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2018-hurricane-season-preliminary-outlook/) - March 14, 2018 Analogs are based off last year. Double weight to 1951 and 2006 2014 added as SSTs are the closest match. Next update with an impact map will be issued around April 10. Total Storms 11-15 Hurricanes: 5-7 Major Hurricanes: 1-3 ACE: 90-110 (near normal) Forecasted SSTs off the Euro are similar
- [Tornado Safety Tips this Spring - Please Share!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tornado-safety-tips-spring-please-share/) - Social Media: Tornado Safety #SpringSafety Please help the National Weather Service spread these important safety messages on social media! Everyone is welcome to use the text and images provided below to help the NWS build a Weather-Ready Nation. What is a Tornado? Tornado Watch Tornado Warning Tornado Warning Video After the Storm Wireless Emergency
- [Reports of serious damage as tornado rips through Alabama university campus](https://firstalerthurricane.com/reports-serious-damage-tornado-rips-alabama-university-campus/) - Severe storms including at least one tornado slammed Alabama's Jacksonville State University on Monday night, as state troopers said the damage left the city looking like a "war zone." Strong winds downed trees and damaged buildings as the National Weather Service (NWS) confirmed a "damaging and possibly large tornado" near Jacksonville and Calhoun Counties, predicted to
- [A Huge Fight in the Longer Range Models](https://firstalerthurricane.com/huge-fight-longer-range-models/) - The euro is lining up an analog idea. Remember when we laid this out back in Feb, the analogs we showed said to watch for this have another fit of cold late in March and April. I am simply reviewing the movie scenes here. The 1962 and 1969 analogs for instance. in any case, the
- [Why a 50% chance of rain usually means a 100% chance of confusion.](https://firstalerthurricane.com/50-chance-rain-usually-means-100-chance-confusion/) - It’s one of the most misunderstood terms in all of the weather, the chance of rain. You hear it and see it in just about every weather forecast nowadays, but few people understand exactly what it means. Whenever people hear the chance of rain, I find that every person interprets it slightly differently. So when
- [Snow to pick up in typical La Nina late winter areas](https://firstalerthurricane.com/snow-pick-typical-la-nina-late-winter-areas/) - With the dip in the SOI, storminess will increase and snow will occur but note until the SSW induced tanking of the AO and then NAO, it will be messy along the southern edges of the snow with ice and mixed precipitation. The next 10 days in the ECMWF and GEM. The next 16 and 15 day in the GFS and EPS. Models
- [Lot's to Talk about on What's ahead for us this year!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/lots-talk-whats-ahead-us-year/) - There is much to talk about this morning First of all the European ensembles which earlier in the week had a warm looking 10-15 ( still do) have a cold looking 6-10 ( the period that was supposed to be warming from a few days ago 1-5 6-10 So we get almost halfway through the
- [Warming arctic at 30mb](https://firstalerthurricane.com/warming-arctic-30mb/) - Some recent SSWs - 2009. and 2001. AO is drifting down. It should accelerate. the GEFS sees the normal -AO temperature anomalies across the hemisphere. The 16 day GFS shows the dominance of the cold. The EC is splitting the cold polar vortex, A lot of uncertainty among the model ensembles on the AO.
- [The Euro is Flat Out Strange](https://firstalerthurricane.com/euro-flat-strange/) - So we go from this on the 00z turn from Wednesday evening that the entire weekly package was based on For 00z Friday Feb 16 to this at 12z yesterday this at 00z to this at 12z today The latest 260 hour for Feb 17 Lets see ridge near the west coast, trough se of
- [UPDATE: The new European is warm. I don't believe it!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/update-new-european-warm-dont-believe/) - This looks like the ANTILOG to what we look for to get warmth over the eastern U.S. The model run is very warm and bearish, once past the front 10 days, however. The 500 mb pattern for the week ending February 12: The week ending February 19: The week ending February 26: To be blunt,
- [Euro Temp Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/euro-temp-update/) - It is hard to believe this kind of flip in the model, given the analogs and the actual weather in the source regions which argue for the opposite. I would be remiss to simply ignore this, I did not expect it. I still don't believe this, but it's simply too much to ignore or throw
- [2018 Hurricane Prediction – Strongest Cycle in 70 Years](https://firstalerthurricane.com/2018-hurricane-prediction-strongest-cycle-70-years/) - GWO was cited by media as the only organization correctly predicting last year’s Atlantic hurricane season and destructive landfalls OCALA, FLA. (PRWEB) JANUARY 18, 2018 Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) was cited by news media as the only major hurricane prediction organization that correctly predicted the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season from beginning to end, and the destructive
- [Next week Fits Pattern Recognition ideas - Snow to the Gulf Coast!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/next-week-fits-pattern-recognition-ideas-snow-gulf-coast/) - I like the storm next week, The models have a problem that most likely will affect the US model more in that the real storm will be the second piece of energy that comes down, This is NOT A TRANSFER TO THE COAST STORM, It is a storm moving through the lakes dying with a
- [Frigid late December to early January impacts linger](https://firstalerthurricane.com/366-2/) - Many who normally 'call for' oil delivery are still struggling to keep the furnaces going. Oil and propane companies were not prepared for the cold. NOAA had forecast a better than 40% chance the winter would be warm. The HDD's were trailing for the heating season with fall warmth. We had warned of a cold
- [Repeat of December sequence](https://firstalerthurricane.com/repeat-december-sequence/) - Back in December we saw warming in the stratosphere develop in the western arctic and Alaska. By the holiday it enveloped northwest North America and the western arctic and had opened us up to invasiions of arctic air. It cooled again at 30mb signalling the January thaw But see in 15 days how the models
- [Cold Weather Safety Tips for your Pets](https://firstalerthurricane.com/cold-weather-safety-tips-pets/) - Exposure to winter’s dry, cold air and chilly rain, sleet and snow can cause chapped paws and itchy, flaking skin, but these aren’t the only discomforts pets can suffer. Winter walks can become downright dangerous if chemicals from ice-melting agents are licked off of bare paws. To help prevent cold weather dangers from affecting your
- [Dangerously Cold New Years Eve and storm may be back](https://firstalerthurricane.com/dangerously-cold-new-years-eve-storm-may-back/) - A dangerously cold and massive arctic air mass dominates tNorth America east of the Continental Divide. Anomalies are almost off the scale as people prepare for New Year's festivities. Temperatures will be below zero across the north and wind chills well below zero for almost half of the nation. Many parts of the midwest will
- [Could the brutal cold period also see a blizzard?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/brutal-cold-period-also-see-blizzard/) - It is another frigid morning int the Great Lakes and Northeast states. As we showed in the region update, Lake Effect has really kicked in with a record snow blitz in Erie PA with well over 5 feet os snow since just before Christmas. See the cold the next 5 days. The following 5 days
- [Reflections on a Cold Winters Eve](https://firstalerthurricane.com/reflections-cold-winters-eve/) - The period Dec 21-Jan 10 will be the coldest 20 day period centered on the New Years since 2000-2001 for the nation as a whole. This has been my missive and still is. Chicago today only hit 5 for a high, well under what numbers a week ago had. Chicago is one of my benchmarks
- [Crucial Linkage to 95-96 in SST,MJO](https://firstalerthurricane.com/crucial-linkage-95-96-sstmjo/) - When was the last time in December people were fired up about the rest of the winter? We continue to see links to 95-96. The SST has cooled in the eastern Indian ocean northwest of Australia and is similar in the east pac off south America, and the water is normal to above in the northeast Pacific
- [Ice and snow to come with the cold - models struggle with details](https://firstalerthurricane.com/ice-snow-come-cold-models-struggle-details/) - The cold is coming, See the paint bomb on the 15 day ensemble EPS. That usually means trouble around the edges. In today's regional update we looked at the last 4 runs of the GFS for the south central - each very different and with one at 00Z off the charts for ice. I looked then at
- [Euro Weekly Comment ( temperatures)](https://firstalerthurricane.com/euro-weekly-comment-temperatures/) - December 18, 2017 The Euro's first three weeks are very cold. The week ending December 29: The week ending January 5: The week ending January 12: Then the flip occurs on the model. The week ending January 19: The week ending January 26: The week ending February 2: The 46 day total is cold, because
- [Euro Weekly Comment ( 500)](https://firstalerthurricane.com/euro-weekly-comment-500/) - December 18, 2017 Euro forecasting a huge flip after Week 3. It's warmer, but inherent model problems limit me taking a stand. The model is notoriously too warm in the longer term. There will be no changes to the January forecast now due to very cold start and uncertainty of the models' prowess. Literally, the
- [Snow or Ice to the Gulf Coast During Christmas week?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/snow-ice-gulf-coast-christmas-week/) - The idea of snow or ice to the gulf coast during Christmas week is certainly something modeling is seeing, In fact, a whole battle zone from Texas to the mid-Atlantic states and northeast has the implications of the what the GEFS ensembles are saying. It fits with the push dictated by the models. Very interesting
- [A note on seasonal forecasting and this winter](https://firstalerthurricane.com/note-seasonal-forecasting-winter/) - Seasonal forecasting is still on the cutting edge of the science of meteorology. People hear about the latest seasonal forecast model runs and El Niño/La Niña, but what actually forms our perception of how a season winds up? Is it just perception that judges whether the forecast was successful? Of course, if you are in
- [Record warm Christmas?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/record-warm-christmas/) - While the cold air developing in the arctic is impressive, it may have some side effects. Depending on where the cold air plunges, there will be two compensating ridges (that's an oversimplification, as the ridges and troughs influence each other). Here is the 500 mb forecast for the last two runs of the GFS for 00z December
- [Model Craziness](https://firstalerthurricane.com/model-craziness/) - This morning I went over the abrupt change in the models from yesterday to today in relation to an Omega Block off the West Coast. Look at the hemispheric Euro from 00z at 500 mb: The new 12z run: The axis of the ridge shifted slightly to the southeast, and this caused the deep closed
- [DAY 11 ANALOGS FROM CPC](https://firstalerthurricane.com/day-11-analogs-cpc/) - One of the analogs is the 1967 example! The surface temps 500 mb 10 days later temps 500 mb 20 days Can you see what goes on here? The extreme event ends the evolution, as it warms after. It's snowing out here, HARD. Normally I am enjoying the storm, but I am totally immersed in
- [Using the Light of What you Know to Journey to Where You Dont know](https://firstalerthurricane.com/using-light-know-journey-dont-know/) - Here is how I am looking at this around North America ( What I believe I know) 1 There is tremendous cold air around Canada in the coming weeks. The reversal is displayed across the board. and will make the biggest difference in the plains where its been warm. A brutal 2-3 week is shaping
- [Storms may increase white Christmas odds, threaten holiday travel in midwestern, northeastern US](https://firstalerthurricane.com/storms-may-increase-white-christmas-odds-threaten-holiday-travel-midwestern-northeastern-us/) - A stormy pattern in the days leading up to Christmas may increase odds for a white Christmas in the midwestern and northeastern United States but may also pose concerns for holiday travelers. “The weather does not look quiet for the days leading up to Christmas,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, much to the
- [Snowstorms in the South: An Historical Perspective](https://firstalerthurricane.com/snowstorms-south-historical-perspective/) - Snowstorms in the Southeast and Deep South of the United States: An Historical Perspective Atlanta, Georgia was amazed recently when 4-6” of snow (and ice) accumulated this past Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, snow fell on Christmas Day (officially 1.4”) in the Atlanta area as well. So how unusual is this? Of course, it is unusual
- [Drag & Drop Feature](https://firstalerthurricane.com/farm/) - She packed her seven versalia, put her initial into the belt and made herself on the way. When she reached the first hills of the Italic Mountains, she had a last view back on the skyline of her hometown Bookmarksgrove, the headline of Alphabet Village and the subline of her own road, the Line Lane.
- [Multiple Layout Options](https://firstalerthurricane.com/new-sport-that-is-winning-that-world/) - A number of such two-sided contests may be arranged in a tournament producing a champion. Many sports leagues make an annual champion by arranging games in a regular sports season, followed in some cases by playoffs. Hundreds of sports exist, from those between single contestants, through to those with hundreds of simultaneous participants, either in
- [On her way she met a copy](https://firstalerthurricane.com/parlia/) - Even the all-powerful Pointing has no control about the blind texts it is an almost unorthographic life One day however a small line of blind text by the name of Lorem Ipsum decided to leave for the far World of Grammar. The Big Oxmox advised her not to do so, because there were thousands of
- [Leave for the far world of grammar](https://firstalerthurricane.com/sports/) - Even the all-powerful Pointing has no control about the blind texts it is an almost unorthographic life One day however a small line of blind text by the name of Lorem Ipsum decided to leave for the far World of Grammar. The Big Oxmox advised her not to do so, because there were thousands of
- [5 Header & 3 Slider Options](https://firstalerthurricane.com/the-copy-warned-the-little-blind-text/) - Far away, behind the word mountains, far from the countries Vokalia and Consonantia, there live the blind texts. Separated they live in Bookmarksgrove right at the coast of the Semantics, a large language ocean. A small river named Duden flows by their place and supplies it with the necessary regelialia. It is a paradisematic country,
- [A small river named Duden](https://firstalerthurricane.com/a-small-river-named-duden-flows-by-their-place-and-supplies/) - Even the all-powerful Pointing has no control about the blind texts it is an almost unorthographic life One day however a small line of blind text by the name of Lorem Ipsum decided to leave for the far World of Grammar. The Big Oxmox advised her not to do so, because there were thousands of
- [Orionid Meteor Shower Will Peak Overnight, With Best Show Before Dawn](https://firstalerthurricane.com/orionid-meteor-shower-will-peak-overnight-best-show-dawn/) - The Orionid Meteor Shower in 2012, as seen in Bridgeport, Calif. The Orionid Meteor Shower will reach its peak on Friday night and Saturday morning, with the best viewing shortly before dawn (wherever you are). Last year, the annual show was less than spectacular — a bright gibbous moon hung in the sky for most of the
- [What to do if a Nuclear Blast lands on US Soil?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/nuclear-blast-lands-us-soil/) - Nuclear Blast A nuclear blast is an explosion with intense light and heat, a damaging pressure wave, and widespread radioactive material that can contaminate the air, water, and ground surfaces for miles around. A nuclear device can range from a weapon carried by an intercontinental missile, to a small portable nuclear device transported by an
- [A Hitchhiker's Guide to Tornado Alley](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hitchhikers-guide-tornado-alley/) - The term “Tornado Alley” has become a common term to describe the region in America most affected by twisters, but a closer look reveals that Tornado Alley is actually composed of four extreme wind expressways. The clash of warm, moist air and cooler, dry air coupled with a strong jet stream are the key ingredients
- [With Increased Destruction, a New Tornado Alley Emerges](https://firstalerthurricane.com/increased-destruction-new-tornado-alley-emerges/) - It’s no mystery why the stretch of America’s heartland from Iowa to Texas became known as Tornado Alley. Every spring, twisters up to two-and-a-half miles wide—wider than Manhattan—churn across flat fields, open roads and, typically, sparsely populated towns, causing hundreds of millions of dollars of property damage each year. In terms of the number of
- [Hurricane Maria, an "extremely dangerous" storm, pounds Dominica](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-maria-extremely-dangerous-storm-pounds-dominica/) - SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- Hurricane Maria, an "extremely dangerous" storm, made landfall on the small island of Dominica Monday night as a Category 5 storm, then weakened ever-so-slightly to a Category 4, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said early Tuesday. Maria was pummeling Dominica with maximum winds of 155 mph as it surged into
- [Maria expected to become a Major Hurricane taking a track similar to Irma](https://firstalerthurricane.com/maria-expected-become-major-hurricane-taking-track-similar-irama/) - Tropical Storm Maria continued to become stronger and better organized overnight and is expected to become a hurricane today as it heads toward islands battered by Irma. Over the next three days, National Hurricane Center forecasters say Maria will likely intensify to a major Category 3 storm with sustained winds topping 125 as it nears
- [Hurricane Irma shares infamous Florida date with Hurricane Donna](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-irma-shares-infamous-florida-date-hurricane-donna/) - Hurricane Donna peeked under the roofs of 30 houses, blew tiles from roofs through the windows of neighboring houses, scoured paint off buildings, crumpled pool screens, and submerged Cape Coral Parkway. (Photo: News-Press archive)[/caption] Donna caused storm surges of 11 feet in the Fort Myers area, according to National Hurricane Center records,
- [Hurricane Irma is one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes ever 185 MPH](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-irma-one-powerful-atlantic-hurricanes-ever-185-mph/) - Hurricane Irma is already one for the record books. On Tuesday, the National Weather Service reported the storm had become a Category 5 with sustained winds of 185 miles per hour. That means Irma now ranks among the most powerful hurricanes (as measured by wind speed) ever recorded. According to the NWS, Irma is the strongest
- [The National Hurricane Center Is A Trusted Source As Worrisome Hurricane Irma Looms](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-hurricane-center-trusted-source-worrisome-hurricane-irma-looms/) - Ok, folks, I am officially concerned, and I usually try to be measured. It is Labor Day, and many people are enjoying the day off. There is a group of professionals, however, that is working very hard today as the increasingly worrisome threat of Hurricane Irma looms. For colleagues at the National Hurricane Center, the peak
- [Hurricane Irma forms in Atlantic, may reach 'extremely dangerous' Category 4](https://firstalerthurricane.com/hurricane-irma-forms-atlantic-may-reach-extremely-dangerous-category-4/) - As the U.S. continues to struggle with the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, which is approaching a tropical depression, a rapidly intensifying new storm is brewing. The National Hurricane Center said Thursday that Tropical Storm Irma is now a Category 2 hurricane with 100-mph winds, and will likely become an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane over
- [Catastrophic Flooding Paralyzed Houston Texas early Sunday Morning](https://firstalerthurricane.com/catastrophic-flooding-paralyzed-houston-texas-early-sunday-morning/) - "Catastrophic" flooding paralyzed Houston and other deluged towns in southeastern Texas early Sunday as Tropical Storm Harvey pummeled and drenched residents and first responders. More than 1,000 people had been rescued overnight due to record flooding in the sprawling Houston area, according to meteorologist Jeff Lindner with Harris County's Flood Control District. "Stay put," the National
- [Flash Flood EMERGENCY For ALL Of Southeastern Texas, Including The Houston Metro As Catastrophic Flooding Is Now In Progress](https://firstalerthurricane.com/flash-flood-emergency-southeastern-texas-including-houston-metro-catastrophic-flooding-now-progress/) - *** Flash Flood EMERGENCY For ALL Of Southeastern Texas, Including The Houston Metro As Catastrophic Flooding Is Now In Progress *** Doppler weather radar and automated rain gauges from around southeastern Texas indicated thunderstorms are producing heavy rain across all of southeastern Texas. Rainfall amounts in the last 24 hours of 14 to 28 inches
- [Here is your Pine Belt Outlook Today & Tropical Update....](https://firstalerthurricane.com/here-is-your-pine-belt-outlook-today-tropical-update/) - Here is your Pine Belt Outlook Today into the Work Week ..... Today through Tonight: A few very light rain showers have continued to move across southern Mississippi early this morning and will continue to do so through the day today. The atmosphere remains fairly saturated above 10,000 with mid- and upper-level moisture spreading out
- [Thursday Evening] Harvey Continuing to Strengthen – Devastating Flooding and Winds Expected in Texas Beginning Friday Night](https://firstalerthurricane.com/thursday-evening-harvey-continuing-strengthen-devastating-flooding-winds-expected-texas-beginning-friday-night/) - Latest Advisory from the National Hurricane Center
- [A Disturbance in the Atlantic and 2 Typhoons in the Pacific to Watch](https://firstalerthurricane.com/disturbance-atlantic-2-typhoons-pacific-watch/) - A tropical wave located at 11 am EDT Wednesday near 11°N, 25°W, about 200 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands, was headed west at 10 - 15 mph, and has marginal potential to develop into a tropical depression early next week. Satellite images on Wednesday morning showed that the wave was embedded in the Intertropical
- [Quiet in the Atlantic; Active in the East Pacific](https://firstalerthurricane.com/quiet-atlantic-active-east-pacific/) - It’s looking more and more likely that July 2017 will wrap up with no additional named storms in Atlantic Basin. Only one named storm formed this month, Don. It was shredded apart by wind shear in the Caribbean and dry air kept it short-lived and weak. Dry air has a firm grip on the Caribbean and central Atlantic Tuesday, and
- [Tornado in Maryland](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tornado-in-maryland/) - Tornado in Maryland GOES-16 Infrared Window (10.3 µm) images, with surface station identifiers, plotted in yellow [click to play MP4 animation] * GOES-16 data posted on this page are preliminary, non-operational and are undergoing testing *An isolated thunderstorm that was moving eastward across Maryland just after Midnight on 24 July 2017 intensified as it
- [Paper on how vertical wind shear impacts surface winds in hurricanes released online in Monthly Weather Review](https://firstalerthurricane.com/paper-vertical-wind-shear-impacts-surface-winds-hurricanes-released-online-monthly-weather-review/) - Summary: Scatterometers are instruments on aircraft or satellites that are used to measure wind speed and direction at the ocean surface. In this follow-up to a 2016 study, the surface wind in tropical cyclones around the world are studied using a large set of measurements from 2000 to 2011. The impact of tropical cyclone intensity,
- [PTC3 to Bring Copious Rainfall to North Gulf Coast; Bret Moving Through the SE Caribbean](https://firstalerthurricane.com/ptc3-bring-copious-rainfall-north-gulf-coast-bret-moving-se-caribbean/) - Potential Tropical Cyclone Three is gradually becoming better organized in the central Gulf of Mexico. The surface circulation has become well-defined, and convection is beginning to take on a curved-band appearance to the NE of the center. However, strong southwesterly wind shear continues to keep the storm lopsided, with the majority of wind and rain
- [[June 18] 92L a Threat to the SE Caribbean; 93L to Bring Widespread Heavy Rain to North Gulf Coast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/june-18-92l-threat-se-caribbean-93l-bring-widespread-heavy-rain-north-gulf-coast/) - Tropical Expert Levi Cowan is a masters student in tropical meteorology at Florida State University.He is Watching Disturbed Weather in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Next Week. You will be able to receive his Tropical Weather Updates right here. At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 7.7 North, longitude
- [Tropical Expert Levi Cowan is watching Disturbed Weather in the Gulf Next Week](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-expert-levi-cowan-watching-disturbed-weather-gulf-next-week/) - Tropical Expert Levi Cowan is a masters student in tropical meteorology at Florida State University.He is Watching Disturbed Weather in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Next Week. You will be able to receive his Tropical Weather Updates right here.
- [Tropical Atlantic may spring to life over the next 7 days](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-atlantic-may-spring-life-next-7-days/) - Waters around southeastern Mexico and over the south-central Atlantic have the potential to yield the next tropical systems of the 2017 hurricane season. June 1 marked the beginning of the Atlantic hurricane season. The peak of the hurricane season spans mid-August to mid-October. Tropical system may form near the southwestern Gulf of Mexico next week
- [7 Best Hurricane Tracker Apps for Smartphones](https://firstalerthurricane.com/7-best-hurricane-tracker-apps-smartphones/) - When you or a loved one are potentially in the path of a hurricane, having a hurricane tracker handy to keep on top of the storm's location and strength as it approaches is critical. Here are some of the best hurricane tracker apps for your smartphone to keep you informed at all times. 1.Hurricane by
- [Social Media: A New Horizon for Forecasting](https://firstalerthurricane.com/social-media-new-horizon-forecasting/) - Social Media: A New Horizon for Forecasting Like many meteorologists and weather enthusiasts who are reading this article, I have been fascinated with the weather for as long as I can remember. When I was younger, in the “B.C.” (Before Computers) years, if you had an interest in weather, the only way to further that
- [Window of development opportunity coming up?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/window-development-opportunity-coming/) - It’s still early June and typically this time of the hurricane season means that things are usually quiet. Every once in a while we will get a June tropical storm or hurricane, but it’s not the norm. As most of you know, the season really begins to ramp up from about mid-August on. Usually…. This
- [Gulf of Mexico Tropical Moisture Brings Heavy Rain Threat to the South, Including Drought-Suffering Florida](https://firstalerthurricane.com/gulf-mexico-tropical-moisture-brings-heavy-rain-threat-south-including-drought-suffering-florida/) - Tropical moisture surging north from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to result in heavy downpours across parts of the South, Gulf Coast and into drought-stricken Florida early this week. Some of the moisture in the Gulf of Mexico is associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Beatriz, which hit the Pacific coast of Mexico late
- [Join our Internet Radio Weather Broadcasting Network Today !!!!](https://firstalerthurricane.com/join-internet-radio-weather-broadcasting-network-today/) - Meteorologist Jason Scott updates US National Forecast, Tropical Forecast, Current SPC Watches and Life Threatening Weather Warnings to Internet Radio Stations across the Country. We wrote some Pal Scripts and assisted in how to Update The MP3 files as needed to Play on you own Internet radio station.. We were able to get this
- [Six Things to Know About the 2017 Hurricane Season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/six-things-to-know-about-the-2017-hurricane-season/) - Today marks the official start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Tropical storm and hurricane activity during the six-month-long season typically reach a peak during the late summer and early fall, namely August into October. While the ultimate outcome of any storms that form this year is unknown – except for one storm that already formed – there are six
- [Tropical Depression Two-E in Eastern Pacific Ocean - Will it Merge into the Gulf ?](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tropical-depression-two-e-eastern-pacific-ocean-will-merge-gulf/) - The second tropical depression of the Eastern Pacific Ocean hurricane season formed near southwestern Mexico. NASA and NOAA satellites provided infrared and visible imagery of the strengthening storm. At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on May 31, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida noted the development of Tropical Depression 2E (TD2E). The formation of
- [Forecasters call for above average Atlantic hurricane season in 2017](https://firstalerthurricane.com/forecasters-call-for-above-average-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2017/) - Forecasters on Thursday said the Atlantic’s 2017 hurricane season will likely be above normal, with 11 to 17 named storms, between five and nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration based their prediction on the likelihood of warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic continuing through the
- [Internet Radio Weather Broadcasting Network Partners](https://firstalerthurricane.com/testing-post/) - The Following are Apps from the App Market I use to upload or change Forecasts: Lesson #1 I record my forecasts from my phone with “Hi-Q MP3 Voice Recorder” and files need to always be saved as an mp3. For example you will always edit and save the Harrison/Branson Forecast as WEATHER.mp3 …. If

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- [After a Hurricane](https://firstalerthurricane.com/after-a-hurricane/) - Continue listening to a NOAA Weather Radio or the local news for the latest updates. If you evacuated, return home only when officials say it is safe. Once home, drive only if necessary and avoid flooded roads and washed-out bridges. If you must go out, watch for fallen objects in the road, downed electrical wires, and weakened walls, bridges,
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- [Seasonal Discussion](https://firstalerthurricane.com/seasonal-discussion/) - Seasonal Discussion The Climate Prediction Center recently updated the spring forecast for the United States. While not much changed from the previous forecast, here is a breakdown of a few things to watch. Drought The drought will continue for parts of the Lower 48, but there is hope. Seasonal Conditions Here’ s a look at what
- [Today’s Severe Hail Threat](https://firstalerthurricane.com/todays-severe-hail-threat/) - Today’s Severe Hail Threat
- [Today’s Tornado Threat](https://firstalerthurricane.com/todays-tornado-threat/) - Today’s Tornado Threat
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- [Severe Outlooks By State](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-outlooks-by-state/) - Severe Outlooks By State Here are the Severe Outlooks from the SPC by statistically significant states: Alabama – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Arizona – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Arkansas – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Northern California – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Southern California – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day
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- [South MS River Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/south-ms-river-forecast-2/) - Below are the southern Mississippi river stage forecasts as issued by the National Weather Service offices of Jackson, MS, Mobile, AL and Slidell, LA. : Strong River near D’Lo Chickasaway near Enterprise Chickasaway near Waynesboro Chickasawhay near Leakesville Tallahala Creek above Waldrup Tallahala Creek near Laurel Tallahala Creek near Runnelstown Bouie Creek in Hattiesburg Bouie
- [Seasonal Discussion](https://firstalerthurricane.com/seasonal-discussion-2/) - The Climate Prediction Center recently updated the spring forecast for the United States. While not much changed from the previous forecast, here is a breakdown of a few things to watch. Drought The drought will continue for parts of the Lower 48, but there is hope. Seasonal Conditions Here’ s a look at what to expect
- [Today’s Severe Hail Threat](https://firstalerthurricane.com/todays-severe-hail-threat-2/)
- [Today’s Tornado Threat](https://firstalerthurricane.com/todays-tornado-threat-2/)
- [Today’s Severe Weather Threat](https://firstalerthurricane.com/todays-severe-weather-threat-2/)
- [Severe Outlooks By State](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-outlooks-by-state-2/) - Here are the Severe Outlooks from the SPC by statistically significant states: Alabama – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Arizona – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Arkansas – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Northern California – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Southern California – Day 1 Severe Outlook || Day 2 Severe Outlook Colorado
- [Severe Weather Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/severe-weather-outlook-2/) - This is a look at the severe weather threat for the next 8 days. 0 – 24 Hours Current discussion from the Storm Prediction Center: 24 – 48 hours 48 – 72 Hours Day 4 – 8 Reading this page… FROM
- [National Convective Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-convective-outlook-2/) - Current discussion from the Storm Prediction Center: Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [National Ice Estimates](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-ice-estimates-2/) - Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [National Snowfall Estimates](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-snowfall-estimates-2/) - Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [National Precipitation Estimates](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-precipitation-estimates-2/) - Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [National Precipitation Chances](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-precipitation-chances-2/) - Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [National Temperatures](https://firstalerthurricane.com/national-temperatures-2/) - Individual Regions (click to expand)
- [Short Term Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/short-term-forecast-2/) - Here’s a look at the next 48 hours from the National Weather Service. Current Conditions The Next 3 Hours The Next 6 Hours The Next 12 Hours 18 Hour Forecast 24 Hour Forecast 24 Hour Forecast Loop 48 Hour Precipitation Totals
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- [Sunny Pine Belt Radio](https://firstalerthurricane.com/sunny-pine-belt-radio/) -  SPC Convective Outlooks Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Welcome to Pine Belt Weather Alerts Pine Belt Weather Alerts is your one-stop weather information source by providing the latest and most up-to-date weather data, including Tropical Weather Information, Caribbean Weather Information, Mississippi Weather Information, Southern US Weather, Northeastern US Weather Information, Severe
- [Pine Belt Weather](https://firstalerthurricane.com/pine-belt-weather/) - Welcome to Pine Belt Weather Alerts Pine Belt Weather Alerts is your one-stop weather information source by providing the latest and most up-to-date weather data, including Tropical Weather Information, Caribbean Weather Information, Mississippi Weather Information, Southern US Weather, Northeastern US Weather Information, Severe Weather Information, and National Weather Information. Latest Tropical Weather Outlook: Categorical Outlook Mississippi Day 1: Categorical Outlook Mississippi Day
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- [Style Guide](https://firstalerthurricane.com/style-guide/) - The style guide provides you with a blueprint of Paperback’s default post and page styles. The style guide is also a great reference for suggested typographic treatment and styles for your content. Right Aligned Image Images may be two-dimensional, such as a photograph, screen display, and as well as a three-dimensional, such as a statue or
- [Pine Belt Weather](https://firstalerthurricane.com/home-2-2/) -  hattiesburg bobby l chain municipal airport weather forecast SPC Convective Outlooks Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Welcome to Pine Belt Weather Alerts Pine Belt First Alert Weather provides Weather Forecasts, Updates, and Alerts for the United States including Severe Weather, Winter Weather, and our specialty, Tropical
- [WINTER WEATHER](https://firstalerthurricane.com/winter-weather/) - Winter Weather Page Check below for a wealth of Winter Weather Information including surface weather maps, satellite images, radar images, forecasts, predictions, and more! All images, forecasts, and documents are courtesy of their respective publishers. US Weather Advisories: Current National Watch, Warnings, and Advisories Current Hemispheric 500 Millibar & Surface Analysis: Current US Surface Weather
- [US Weather](https://firstalerthurricane.com/us-weather/) - US Weather Page SPC Convective Outlooks Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 Current US Surface Weather Map US Weather Advisories Click on a colored region for details. US Weather Advisories Add this to your website US Mesoscale Analysis NATIONAL SECTOR 1 SECTOR 2 SECTOR 3 SECTOR 4 SECTOR 5 SECTOR 6 Current Infrared
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## Recipes

- [Hurricane Tracker PRO](https://firstalerthurricane.com/uo-recipe/tropical-update/)

## Categories

- [Florida Weather Blog](https://firstalerthurricane.com/category/florida-weather-blog/)
- [Gulf Coast Weather Blog](https://firstalerthurricane.com/category/gulf-coast-weather-blog/) - Pine Belt Weather Alerts is your one-stop weather information source by providing the latest and most up-to-date weather data, including Tropical Weather Information, Caribbean Weather Information, Mississippi Weather Information, Southern US Weather, Northeastern US Weather Information, Severe Weather Information, and National Weather Information.
- [Hurricane Blog](https://firstalerthurricane.com/category/hurricane-blog/)
- [Mississippi Weather Blog](https://firstalerthurricane.com/category/mississippi-weather-blog/)
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- [Weather and Climate](https://firstalerthurricane.com/category/weather-and-climate/)

## Tags

- [Gulf Coast Weather Forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/gulf-coast-weather-forecast/)
- [Hurricane](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/hurricane/)
- [Hurricane Update](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/hurricane-update/)
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- [Mississippi Weather](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/mississippi-weather/)
- [Tropical Outlook](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/tropical-outlook/)
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- [2025 Hurricane Season](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/2025-hurricane-season/)
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- [weather forecast](https://firstalerthurricane.com/tag/weather-forecast/)